Monday, February 25, 2019

Here's How the Average American Plans to Use Their Tax Refund

For many Americans, tax refunds are an annual windfall that helps strengthen their finances, allowing them to pay down debt, put some money away, or buy something slightly indulgent. The average taxpayer expects $2,019 from their tax refund, according to a new survey of 2,012 taxpaying Americans by tech website Decluttr.

The good news is that many Americans plan to use at least some of their refund to pay bills or to boost their savings. Four in 10 of those surveyed plan to use a portion of their refund to put money away in a savings accounts or a certificate of deposit (CD), and the same number (40%) planned to use the funds to pay off credit card debt.

Tax forms sit next to a calculator.

Americans plan to spend their tax refunds on everything from bills to electronics. Images source: Getty Images.

Where is the money going?

Many Americans (42%) expect to use at least some of their refund to pay off debt, according to the survey.

In many cases, these debts are everyday bills, including utilities and mortgage payments:

Debt/Bill Category

% of People Spending in This Category

Credit card bill

39%

Utilities

24%

Rent/mortgage

23%

Personal loan

15%

Student loan

13%

Data source: Decluttr.

The fact that so many Americans are counting on their tax refund to pay off everyday bills is a sobering indication of how Americans are doing with their personal finances. But, it's encouraging that 40% plan to save, at least some of their return. Saving money -- whether in a savings account or by making an investment -- can build a cash cushion that can help you in case of an emergency.

In some cases, this type of saving is the continuation of good habits and planning for the future. For others, this will be their first step on a long road toward getting their finances in order. No matter, it's a good idea to develop a habit of saving or investing a portion of any unexpected income.

The below chart shows how the 40% of survey respondents who saved at least some of their refund allocated those dollars:

Savings Category

% of People Spending in This Category

Savings accounts or CDs

44%

Individual stocks and bonds

16%

Mutual funds and ETFs

11%

College savings plan

9%

Data source: Decluttr.

Of course, not every American plans to put money away for a rainy day or use their refund to pay off bills. Nearly half expect to spend the money on travel (25%), shoes/apparel (23%), electronics (20%), and home and garden (13%).

What should you do with your tax refund?

How you spend your refund (assuming you're getting one) depends upon your financial situation. If you have overdue utility bills or you're behind on your mortgage or your rent, it's important to pay those bills first even if it means not paying down high-interest loans.

After your immediate needs are taken care of, if you have high-interest debt like credit card balances or personal loans, pay those off or at least pay them down first. That will be the best return on your money, since the interest you would have paid would almost certainly exceed any returns you could earn on that money by investing it.

If you're current with your bills and you have no high-interest debt, how much you save from your refund depends upon your personal situation. Do you have an emergency fund that could support you for three to six months of unemployment? Have you been saving regularly for retirement and could your portfolio use a supercharge?

If you're behind in either of those areas, you can allow yourself a small indulgence (maybe a nice dinner or a modest weekend trip), but save or invest most of the money in your tax return. Of course, if you're in superb financial shape, consider using more of the money for fun purposes. If you've already handled your finances well, you've earned it.

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Best Biotech Stocks For 2019

tags:VYGR,AGEN,CBM,

As with most small biotechs, VBI Vaccines (VBIV) trades in a volatile manner. The stock now trades some 35% from the yearly highs of $6.60 despite some promising developments for the stock during June.


My last research at the end of February highlighted the hidden opportunity in the hepatitis B opportunity. The question now is whether an investor gets another opportunity to buy VBI Vaccines at $4.30?

Phase 3 Catalyst

Best Biotech Stocks For 2019: Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.(VYGR)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Trey Thoelcke]

    Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: VYGR) also saw a director at the buy window last week. At an average of $18.31 apiece, the 3,000 shares reportedly acquired cost that director less than $55,000. Here too, a disappointing earnings report had shares down, offering an entry point. The stock was last seen up more than 12% from the purchase price, so seemingly a well-timed buy.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Chris Lange]

    Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: VYGR) will be presenting at the American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy annual meeting taking place May 16 to 19, 2018, in Chicago. The firm will be releasing data from its lead clinical program for Parkinson's disease, its preclinical programs targeting a monogenic form of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) called SOD1, Huntington's disease and Friedreich's ataxia, and its gene therapy vector platform including novel adeno-associated virus capsid optimization efforts and manufacturing capabilities.

  • [By Lisa Levin] Gainers The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) jumped 36.2 percent to $71.82 after the company reported upbeat results for its first quarter. The company also issued strong second-quarter and FY18 sales guidance. WideOpenWest, Inc. (NYSE: WOW) jumped 30.4 percent to $8.80 after the company reported Q1 results. MoSys, Inc. (NASDAQ: MOSY) shares surged 28.6 percent to $1.9541 after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 results and issued strong Q2 forecast. Boxlight Corporation (NASDAQ: BOXL) gained 24 percent to $6.39. Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKCA) shares gained 19.1 percent to $24.60. Akcea Therapeutics, an affiliate of Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: IONS) announced that the Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee, which met to discuss the safety and efficacy of subcutaneously injected volanesoren solution for patients with familial chylomicronemia syndrome, voted 12-8 to support its approval. Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: UEPS) shares rose 17 percent to $10.31 after reporting Q3 results. ArcBest Corporation (NASDAQ: ARCB) gained 16.8 percent to $43.1457 after reporting upbeat quarterly earnings. Amtech Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASYS) rose 16.2 percent to $8.60. Amtech posted Q2 earnings of $0.19 per share on sales of $32.783 million. Identiv, Inc (NASDAQ: INVE) surged 14.4 percent to $3.8450 following Q1 results. Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares rose 14.3 percent to $18.43 following Q1 results. VivoPower International PLC (NASDAQ: VVPR) gained 11.5 percent to $2.71. Intersections Inc. (NASDAQ: INTX) gained 11.4 percent to $2.55 after reporting Q1 results. Noodles & Company (NASDAQ: NDLS) shares rose 10.9 percent to $8.65 following Q1 results. Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VYGR) climbed 10.6 percent to $18.54 following Q1 results. Blink Charging Co. (NASDAQ: BLNK) rose 10.4 percent to $5.739. Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ: IMMR) gained 9.6 percent to $12.69
  • [By Chris Lange]

    For many drug developers, Parkinson's disease is a tricky disease to treat. However, developing a treatment ultimately could yield a huge reward as there are currently no therapies that effectively slow or reverse the progression of this disease. And after Thursday's announcement, Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: VYGR) could be poised to reap this reward.

Best Biotech Stocks For 2019: Agenus Inc.(AGEN)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By George Budwell]

    The small-cap immuno-oncology company Agenus (NASDAQ:AGEN) and the inhaled insulin company MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) are prime examples of this phenomenon. Even though both of these companies have been in existence for over two decades, these two particular biotechs have failed to bring a product to market capable of generating a significant revenue stream. As a result, these two companies have essentially been forced to wipe out their early shareholders through serial dilution.

  • [By George Budwell]

    Shares of the small-cap biotech Agenus (NASDAQ:AGEN) reversed its year-long down trend by gaining a stately 20.1% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. What sparked this marked turnaround?

  • [By George Budwell]

    Agenus (NASDAQ:AGEN), a small-cap cancer immunotherapy and vaccine company, has started to claw its way back from a steep downturn that began last April. Specifically, the drugmaker's shares have spiked by a healthy 29% over just the past three trading sessions. 

Best Biotech Stocks For 2019: Cambrex Corporation(CBM)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By George Budwell, Chuck Saletta, and Todd Campbell]

    So, with the biotech space solidly on the comeback trail, we asked three of our Motley Fool contributors which stocks they think are poised to keep churning higher in February and perhaps for the remainder of the year. They suggested Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VKTX), Cambrex (NYSE:CBM), and Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT). Here's why.     

  • [By Brian Feroldi]

    In response to reporting of fourth-quarter and full-year quarterly results, shares of Cambrex Corporation (NYSE:CBM), a supplier to the life sciences industry, fell 11% as of 11:10 a.m. EST on Wednesday.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Shares of Cambrex Co. (NYSE:CBM) have earned a consensus recommendation of “Hold” from the six brokerages that are covering the firm, Marketbeat reports. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, three have issued a hold rating and two have issued a buy rating on the company. The average 1-year price objective among brokerages that have covered the stock in the last year is $60.00.

  • [By Money Morning Staff Reports]

    Cambrex Corp. (NYSE: CBM) was founded in 1981 and is a leading supplier of generic active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

    Cambrex has more than 100 generic APIs, and 90 of them are commercially sold.

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Q1 2019 Earnings Forecast for Continental Resources, Inc. Issued By Jefferies Financial Group (CLR)

Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) – Analysts at Jefferies Financial Group decreased their Q1 2019 earnings estimates for Continental Resources in a research note issued on Thursday, February 21st. Jefferies Financial Group analyst T. Hughes now anticipates that the oil and natural gas company will post earnings per share of $0.51 for the quarter, down from their prior forecast of $0.56. Jefferies Financial Group has a “Buy” rating and a $64.00 price objective on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group also issued estimates for Continental Resources’ Q2 2019 earnings at $0.55 EPS, FY2019 earnings at $2.15 EPS and FY2021 earnings at $3.51 EPS.

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Several other equities analysts have also weighed in on the stock. Zacks Investment Research lowered shares of Continental Resources from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Friday. Raymond James reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $70.00 price objective on shares of Continental Resources in a research report on Thursday. Morgan Stanley set a $57.00 price objective on shares of Continental Resources and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday. TD Securities dropped their price objective on shares of Continental Resources from $57.00 to $56.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday. Finally, Credit Suisse Group reaffirmed a “buy” rating and set a $56.00 price target on shares of Continental Resources in a research report on Tuesday. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, five have given a hold rating and thirty-three have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $68.00.

Shares of CLR opened at $44.04 on Friday. The stock has a market capitalization of $16.92 billion, a PE ratio of 15.51, a P/E/G ratio of 1.45 and a beta of 1.50. Continental Resources has a fifty-two week low of $35.54 and a fifty-two week high of $71.95. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, a quick ratio of 0.85 and a current ratio of 1.02.

Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Monday, February 18th. The oil and natural gas company reported $0.54 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.61 by ($0.07). The firm had revenue of $1.15 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.17 billion. Continental Resources had a net margin of 20.99% and a return on equity of 18.28%. The business’s revenue was up 9.8% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.41 EPS.

Hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. Victory Capital Management Inc. bought a new position in Continental Resources in the 3rd quarter valued at about $2,811,000. Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. increased its holdings in Continental Resources by 189.1% in the 3rd quarter. Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. now owns 109,000 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $7,443,000 after buying an additional 71,300 shares during the period. Ninepoint Partners LP bought a new position in Continental Resources in the 3rd quarter valued at about $4,097,000. Prudential Financial Inc. increased its holdings in Continental Resources by 31.0% in the 3rd quarter. Prudential Financial Inc. now owns 1,225,496 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $83,677,000 after buying an additional 290,300 shares during the period. Finally, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board increased its holdings in Continental Resources by 13.6% in the 3rd quarter. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board now owns 521,820 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $35,630,000 after buying an additional 62,500 shares during the period. 20.68% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Continental Resources

Continental Resources, Inc explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas properties in the north, south, and east regions of the United States. The company sells its crude oil and natural gas production to energy marketing companies, crude oil refining companies, and natural gas gathering and processing companies.

See Also: New Google Finance Tool and Screening Stocks

Earnings History and Estimates for Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR)

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) Files 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended on December 31, 2018

ON Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:ON) files its latest 10-K with SEC for the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2018. ON Semiconductor Corp manufactures and markets semiconductor components. It provides a portfolio of analog, digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits, standard products, image sensors, custom devices, and power management and others. ON Semiconductor Corp has a market cap of $9.52 billion; its shares were traded at around $22.62 with a P/E ratio of 15.82 and P/S ratio of 1.72. ON Semiconductor Corp had annual average EBITDA growth of 34.50% over the past five years.

For the last quarter ON Semiconductor Corp reported a revenue of $1.5 billion, compared with the revenue of $1.4 billion during the same period a year ago. For the latest fiscal year the company reported a revenue of $5.9 billion, an increase of 6% from last year. For the last five years ON Semiconductor Corp had an average revenue growth rate of 17.1% a year.

The reported diluted earnings per share was $1.44 for the year, a decline of 23.8% from the previous year. Over the last five years ON Semiconductor Corp had an EPS growth rate of 39.7% a year. The ON Semiconductor Corp had a decent operating margin of 14.6%, compared with the operating margin of 12.9% a year before. The 10-year historical median operating margin of ON Semiconductor Corp is 8.77%. The profitability rank of the company is 8 (out of 10).

At the end of the fiscal year, ON Semiconductor Corp has the cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion, compared with $949.2 million in the previous year. The long term debt was $2.6 billion, compared with $2.7 billion in the previous year. The interest coverage to the debt is 6.7. ON Semiconductor Corp has a financial strength rank of 6 (out of 10).

At the current stock price of $22.62, ON Semiconductor Corp is traded at 26.1% premium to its historical median P/S valuation band of $17.94. The P/S ratio of the stock is 1.72, while the historical median P/S ratio is 1.37. The stock gained 1.06% during the past 12 months.

Directors and Officers Recent Trades:

Director Emmanuel T Hernandez sold 10,000 shares of ON stock on 02/11/2019 at the average price of $22.05. The price of the stock has increased by 2.59% since.Director Emmanuel T Hernandez sold 10,000 shares of ON stock on 02/05/2019 at the average price of $22. The price of the stock has increased by 2.82% since.Director Emmanuel T Hernandez sold 30,000 shares of ON stock on 01/25/2019 at the average price of $20.01. The price of the stock has increased by 13.04% since.

For the complete 20-year historical financial data of ON, click here.

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Loeb Partners Corp Buys New Stake in Regency Centers Corp (REG)

Loeb Partners Corp bought a new stake in Regency Centers Corp (NYSE:REG) during the fourth quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund bought 3,000 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock, valued at approximately $176,000.

Other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Enlightenment Research LLC purchased a new stake in Regency Centers in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $47,000. Point72 Hong Kong Ltd purchased a new stake in Regency Centers in the third quarter valued at approximately $106,000. ETF Managers Group LLC raised its position in Regency Centers by 18.9% in the fourth quarter. ETF Managers Group LLC now owns 2,268 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $133,000 after purchasing an additional 360 shares during the period. Conning Inc. raised its position in Regency Centers by 5.5% in the fourth quarter. Conning Inc. now owns 4,001 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $235,000 after purchasing an additional 210 shares during the period. Finally, Mackenzie Financial Corp raised its position in Regency Centers by 22.7% in the third quarter. Mackenzie Financial Corp now owns 4,483 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $290,000 after purchasing an additional 829 shares during the period. 93.87% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

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REG has been the topic of a number of research analyst reports. Barclays raised Regency Centers from an “equal weight” rating to an “overweight” rating and boosted their target price for the company from $63.00 to $69.00 in a research report on Monday, February 4th. Royal Bank of Canada lowered Regency Centers from a “top pick” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a $62.30 price objective on the stock. in a research report on Friday, December 14th. Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a “hold” rating and set a $66.00 price objective on shares of Regency Centers in a research report on Monday, December 17th. SunTrust Banks reaffirmed a “buy” rating and set a $69.00 price objective on shares of Regency Centers in a research report on Monday, November 19th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets set a $64.00 price objective on Regency Centers and gave the stock a “hold” rating in a research report on Thursday. Six analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and eight have given a buy rating to the company’s stock. Regency Centers currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $68.94.

Regency Centers stock opened at $66.32 on Friday. Regency Centers Corp has a twelve month low of $55.38 and a twelve month high of $66.86. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.87. The firm has a market cap of $11.24 billion, a PE ratio of 17.97, a P/E/G ratio of 2.50 and a beta of 0.37.

Regency Centers (NYSE:REG) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, February 13th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.46 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.94 by ($0.48). Regency Centers had a return on equity of 3.86% and a net margin of 23.19%. The company had revenue of $277.07 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $269.96 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.92 EPS. Analysts predict that Regency Centers Corp will post 3.78 EPS for the current year.

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, March 7th. Investors of record on Monday, February 25th will be issued a $0.585 dividend. This represents a $2.34 annualized dividend and a yield of 3.53%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, February 22nd. This is a positive change from Regency Centers’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.56. Regency Centers’s dividend payout ratio is 60.16%.

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About Regency Centers

Regency Centers is the preeminent national owner, operator, and developer of shopping centers located in affluent and densely populated trade areas. Our portfolio includes thriving properties merchandised with highly productive grocers, restaurants, service providers, and best-in-class retailers that connect to their neighborhoods, communities, and customers.

See Also: Discount Rate

Want to see what other hedge funds are holding REG? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Regency Centers Corp (NYSE:REG).

Institutional Ownership by Quarter for Regency Centers (NYSE:REG)

Monday, February 18, 2019

Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Receives Consensus Rating of “Hold” from Brokerages

Cenovus Energy Inc (NYSE:CVE) (TSE:CVE) has received a consensus rating of “Hold” from the twenty brokerages that are covering the stock, MarketBeat.com reports. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, ten have assigned a hold rating and six have given a buy rating to the company. The average 12 month price objective among analysts that have covered the stock in the last year is $12.70.

Several research analysts recently weighed in on CVE shares. TD Securities upgraded shares of Cenovus Energy from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, October 22nd. Scotiabank upgraded shares of Cenovus Energy from a “sector perform” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, October 30th. Raymond James reiterated a “hold” rating on shares of Cenovus Energy in a research report on Thursday, November 1st. Zacks Investment Research reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $9.25 price target on shares of Cenovus Energy in a research report on Tuesday, November 13th. Finally, Morgan Stanley reduced their price target on shares of Cenovus Energy from $17.00 to $15.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, November 20th.

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A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. Whittier Trust Co. grew its holdings in shares of Cenovus Energy by 52.8% in the fourth quarter. Whittier Trust Co. now owns 11,876 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $84,000 after purchasing an additional 4,104 shares during the last quarter. Blume Capital Management Inc. grew its holdings in shares of Cenovus Energy by 21.6% in the fourth quarter. Blume Capital Management Inc. now owns 12,381 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $87,000 after purchasing an additional 2,200 shares during the last quarter. Acadian Asset Management LLC grew its holdings in shares of Cenovus Energy by 1,540.0% in the fourth quarter. Acadian Asset Management LLC now owns 16,400 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $115,000 after purchasing an additional 15,400 shares during the last quarter. Stevens Capital Management LP bought a new position in shares of Cenovus Energy in the fourth quarter worth approximately $156,000. Finally, United Services Automobile Association grew its holdings in shares of Cenovus Energy by 46.5% in the second quarter. United Services Automobile Association now owns 21,948 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $228,000 after purchasing an additional 6,969 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 74.94% of the company’s stock.

Shares of CVE stock traded up $0.33 during trading on Tuesday, hitting $8.69. The company had a trading volume of 4,476,019 shares, compared to its average volume of 4,367,000. The company has a current ratio of 1.26, a quick ratio of 0.91 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47. The stock has a market cap of $10.68 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -4.99, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 3.11 and a beta of 0.72. Cenovus Energy has a 52 week low of $6.15 and a 52 week high of $11.47.

Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) (TSE:CVE) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, February 13th. The oil and gas company reported ($1.03) earnings per share for the quarter, missing the Thomson Reuters’ consensus estimate of ($0.16) by ($0.87). The company had revenue of $3.44 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.78 billion. Cenovus Energy had a negative return on equity of 15.37% and a negative net margin of 12.41%. During the same quarter last year, the company posted ($0.42) earnings per share. As a group, sell-side analysts forecast that Cenovus Energy will post 0.45 EPS for the current fiscal year.

The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, March 29th. Shareholders of record on Friday, March 15th will be given a dividend of $0.0377 per share. This represents a $0.15 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.73%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Thursday, March 14th. Cenovus Energy’s payout ratio is currently -8.62%.

About Cenovus Energy

Cenovus Energy, Inc engages in gas and oil provisions. Its activities include development, production, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada. It operates through four segments: Oil Sands, Deep Basin, Refining & Marketing, and Corporate & Eliminations. The Oil sands segment includes the development and production of bitumen and natural gas in northeast Alberta including Foster Creek, Christina Lake and Narrows Lake as well as projects in the early stages of development, such as Grand Rapids and Telephone Lake.

Further Reading: How Do Investors Open a Backdoor Roth IRA?

Analyst Recommendations for Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE)

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd  (NYSE:AEM)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 15, 2019, 11:00 a.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning. My name is Chris and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Agnico Eagle Fourth Quarter Results 2018 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

Mr. Sean Boyd, Chief Executive Officer of Agnico Eagle Mines, you may begin the conference.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for our Q4 2018 update. Before we get into the presentation, in the slide deck there's a couple of slides on forward-looking statements, so please take note of those. As we step back and look at the strategy, I think for us it's just a natural progression as we move from a transition year in 2018 into 2019 and the goals are still the same, to go forward in a measured pace, manage our risk and create a business that generates above average returns and does on a sustainable and self-funding basis.

As we said, as we look at 2019 we are completing the expansion in Nunavut with Meliadine starting in Q2 and Amaruq starting in Q3, that sets us up for a record production in 2019, 2 million ounces in 2020 with the potential to go beyond 2 million ounces as we move beyond 2020. The nice thing about our positioning as we invested heavily over the last two years largely in the Nunavut platform, our CapEx is going to decline significantly in 2019, coming down from roughly $1.1 billion in 2018, down to about $660 million in 2019.

As we move beyond 2019 into 2020 and 2021, we would expect to have a capital spending range of between $500 million and $700 million, including sustaining of about $300 million and that's largely dependent on the gold price, but also dependent on our project approvals of the internal projects that we have in the pipeline. So there still analysis and work to still do before we get to the point where we're in a position to make a positive decision on several of those projects and we'll talk about them in the presentation.

From a risk point of view, we've built the business by managing a political risk. So we're focused on going into jurisdictions that we can see ourselves operating for multi-decade, that really hasn't changed. The pipeline, as we said, has a lot of opportunities in it to add additional value. And so while we've been focused on building the Nunavut platform and while we are focused on delivering the two big projects this year, we continue to work on advancing several of those internal projects through a combination of additional exploration and also advancing several studies.

One of the things we rely heavily on is we have really built the Company on going into situations early drilling and then building as we are heavily reliant on our in-house technical skills and experience, and I think what we continue to prove over and over that are build-our-own-mines approach works very well for us. So we're going to continue to focus on that. So this is really from a strategic point of view, all about staying disciplined, sticking to a strategy that's worked well for us for years, moving at a measured pace and striking the right balance between investing in our project pipeline, paying down the debt as it comes due and also increasing the dividend. So we'll talk a little bit about the building blocks that make up that strategy.

Turning to the fourth quarter and the full year results, another strong quarter. In Q4, good production, 411,000 ounces at cash costs of $608, so exceeded our expectations. That have put us in a position for the full year to produce 1.63 million ounces, again exceeding guidance at very good cost. As we've said many times before, 2018 was a transition year as we transitioned away from the deposit in the vicinity of the Meadowbank processing facility into new production platforms, in Nunavut that would see our production growth, but for a transition year it was actually excellent because if you look at the actual production decline from 2017 to 2018, it was only 5%. So we were -- several years ago we're looking at this transition, there was a potential for a sizable gap in production and our team has done an exceptional job, I'll talk about that in a minute, on how we've got a nice smooth transition between Meadowbank and Amaruq.

As we said, we have increased our guidance for 2019. We expect to produce 1.75 million ounces of gold, which is a record for Agnico Eagle and we're doing that with unit costs in 2019 stable, but with slightly declining unit costs beyond 2019 as we ramp up production further. This is largely driven this growth off of the expanded platform in Nunavut, as we said, Meliadine we expect to start production in Q2 of this year. We are commissioning the plant as we speak and we would expect to be pouring gold this month. And again, we'll get into some of these details, we're also -- have done a good job moving our Amaruq deposit forward.

Based on the fact that CapEx is coming down significantly, we're in a position as production ramps up materially in the second half of this year, we're are in a comfortable position and a confident position in terms of being able to deliver that to the point where we are increasing our dividend today. And I think if you look at that, that's really consistent with our long track record of paying a dividend for over 34 years and also consistent with the last several years where even though gold fell from $1,700 we did not eliminate our dividend, we did manage it lower. But this will be the third increase since the dividend bottomed at $0.32 a share. So we just take that as a sign of our confidence in the future of our business.

Exploration remains a key value driver for us. It's an important component of understanding the quality of the project pipeline. So we're actively drilling on a big part of our project pipeline. We continue to see good results at places like Meliadine where we have encountered good grades outside of the known mineral reserve and resource outline and our experience largely has been that we tend to create more value from an exploration standpoint once we get the production base established and we would certainly expect that to happen at Meliadine given the size of the land package there that's largely unexplored.

At Amaruq, drilling continues to give us confidence in the underground opportunity there. In fact we continue to grow the overall reserve and resource, which now totals over 6 million ounces. We added about 500,000 ounces to the open pit reserve, which extends the mine life there. And so what we're doing now as we focus on executing is to continue to work on various options and studies on the underground opportunity that exists at Amaruq with a potential to have an overlap with the open pit mine at some point in the future, and we'll have more details on that later this year.

In Mexico at Santa Gertrudis we have almost 1 million ounces now in resource outline at that project. We continue to move that forward and we'll have more news on that as we move through this year on what our plans are at that project. Drilling has also not only given us some clarity on our projects, but also continued to allow us to post another year of reserve and resource growth. Our total ounces increased by 7% to 22 million ounces and our grade increased by 8% to 2.7 grams per ton. So, a big part of the production growth over the next three years is really driven off of higher grades being delivered to the processing facilities and that's what's allowing us to have a good cost forecast going forward on unit cost basis.

Just a little bit more detail on the operating results. As we said, better-than-expected Q4 production cost performance, really driven by strong results at LaRonde, Canadian Malartic and Pinos Altos. Our financial highlights, we did have a large headline loss due to impairments and from the perspective of the assets involved in that, the largest charge was a $250 million impairment at Canadian Malartic and that was really a reduction of the goodwill component that was booked on the acquisition in 2014. That goodwill does not get amortized under IFRS. So ultimately over time, you have to reduce that goodwill. That does not reflect where we are on that asset. In fact we see the potential to add additional ounces at Odyssey and EastMalartic, but that wasn't at the stage that we could put significant value on it at this point in time when we look at the impairment test around goodwill. At La India we had a reduction in goodwill of $40 million, again on the acquisition that was completed back in 2011 and at Kittila (ph) we had an impairment of $100 million. Now that's largely because that project does not reach our hurdle rate at this point. We haven't totally given up on it. We're continuing to drill it and look for ways that we can improve the situation, but it just made sense that we took an impairment on that project in 2018.

As far as our financial position, it remains strong even after coming off a significant construction phase over the last two years where we spent over $1 billion in capital in both 2017 and 2018. And as we said, our CapEx declines significantly in 2019, down by over $400 million from 2018 while the gold production growth, particularly in the second half, where we expect to be free cash flow positive.

Moving to the project pipeline, there is an opportunity, as we said, to go beyond 2 million ounces when we move beyond 2020. So we're focused now on analyzing those opportunities from both a rate of return perspective, but also from the perspective of the potential that will positively impact our business as we move forward. A part of that work includes additional drilling and also includes updating studies, not going to go through the entire list, but I think LaRonde presents an interesting opportunity as we go deeper at that mine. You can see that we added 800,000 ounces of high-grade gold in the year, averaging 7.9 grams per ton and that's largely on the western side of the deeper part of LaRonde where we had some of the best drill holes we've had in the history of that deposit.

We also continue to drill the Zone 6 horizon where we had early indications of maybe a reappearance of a massive sulfide land. So there's a lot of drilling and study work ongoing at LaRonde and as we go deeper, certainly the risks increase. That's why we're taking our time to lay out a solid plan to go below 3.1 kilometers and as we do that, we want to know the full extent of the mineralization down there and if there is a separate horizon in Zone 6. So we'll continue to drill that and provide updates as we move forward.

I would point out at Canadian Malartic we will be moving forward on an underground ramp. We continue to grow the resource. We continue to do a study on that opportunity. So, we would be in a position later this year to provide more clarity and color on how that will progress. As we said, it's too early to put a lot of economic parameters around it at this point and we're still actively drilling that area.

Let's move on to the sort of longer-term projects beyond 2023 and a lot of them are the same and some of them are in fact just going deeper. For example, at Canadian Malartic, the initial study will be done down to a depth of about 600 meters. We certainly see from drilling that there is mineralization below 600 meters. So it's a matter of doing more exploration work and then updating studies and looking at the economics as we think about going deeper in an underground scenario at Canadian Malartic.

Kirkland Lake is a project that has over 5 million ounces of reserves and resource. We continue to drill it and we also continue to study it, and that's an opportunity that we will have more news on as we go forward and probably by the end of this year and at Amaruq, that's the one that has the most potential to have a significant impact on production, bringing in an underground simultaneously with an open pit at some point as we move forward. And we're actively studying those options and we'll have more information on that before we close this year.

I'll quickly go through the operations and then we'll open it up for questions. Starting with LaRonde and LZ5, good performance in the quarter, really good operating margins continue to be generated LaRonde. Looking at over the next three years, we expect to average with LaRonde and LZ5 pretty close to 400,000 ounces a year over the next three years at good cost. As you can see in the quarter, LaRonde produced gold at under $500 cash cost. So they've done an exceptional job as they go deeper in that mine and as they access better grades in the lower part of the deposit.

At Canadian Malartic, we talked about that, they've also done an exceptional job. If you look at record production from record tonnage from good grades, they have made good progress on the Barnat extension. There -- they should average over the next three years a similar production levels to what they did in 2018. So, good solid production, good cost performance and the key going forward for us is to understand the underground opportunity there. In order to do that we need to do more drilling. And there are several horizons that we need to understand. There is a sizable resource there. So that's one that we have enough information on at this point to invest in an underground ramp to open it up and access it, but it still requires more drilling and more study to determine how we're going to deploy capital with our partner Yamana at that project.

Goldex is a steady producer. It has opportunities to go after a smaller higher grade South Zone. It also has opportunities at the Akasaba West project which we put on hold. That's just part of an effort to work within a defined capital spend number and although it meets our hurdle rate, in terms of the potential impact of the business, it's still relatively small. So our capital of $660 million this year is focused on larger projects that have a bigger potential impact, but it will be a project that will come into production at some point in our future.

At Meadowbank, I made reference to the transition. Actually this was an exceptional transition and an exceptional plan that involves a lot of good thinking, but most importantly, a lot of teamwork because really what you had is you had basically a dozen drill holes in 2013 with the first drilling done in August of 2013 and literally six years later you've got a mine starting up. So that's an exceptional job with the Meadowbank and the Amaruq teams. And what the Meadowbank team did was also continued to squeeze out cash flow at Meadowbank.

So, you can see in 2019 we have additional production coming out of the Meadowbank deposit. So, that was an exceptional job because it's basically did not have any adverse effects on the workforce, which was important, which would have impacted the communities if there was a serious gap production. So effectively, not an easy transition, but a relatively seamless transition through a lot of good work and good thinking.

Amaruq, moving to that, as we said earlier in the presentation, when you look at the combined size of that from a reserve and resource perspective, over 6 million ounces with 2.5 million ounces in reserves and the mine plan from the open pit perspective. As we said, we added about 0.5 million ounces to gold reserves at open pit depths. Now we are evaluating the potential, as we said, to open up an underground opportunity there, but also to optimize the pit because if we are going to go underground and that allows us to do less stripping in the pit and become much more efficient in the allocation of capital and the return on the pit. So, we'll have more details on that as we move through 2019.

At Meliadine, we talked about it at the start, it's ahead of schedule, it's below budget, that largely drives the increase in the guidance for 2019. As we said, they are commissioning the plant as we speak. We expect to have gold (inaudible) at Meliadine before the end of this month. Things are going well there also from a mining perspective. That's happening in the plant now, I'd say we're delivering over 2,000 tons a day of what we recall mid-grade or in the sort of 5 gram range and as we go through the next few weeks, we'll be delivering into the mill what we would call higher grade material above 7 grams. So, again, things have gone well and that's why we have confidence in raising our guidance this year to 1.75 million ounces and we continue to drill it and we see intersections that suggest that the deposit at Tiriganiaq will continue to grow.

At Kittila, we're making good progress on the shaft and the mill expansion. In 2019 we're going to reline the autoclave, so we have about a 60-day shutdown. So even factoring that in, we're still showing record output overall in 2019 from a Companywide perspective. So, it's a good year to do the autoclave relining which happens every four to five years.

Moving to the southern business, as we also mentioned, Pinos Altos had a good year. It's a good cash flow generator, good solid production, very good cost performance. It's still a key cash flow generator to us. It's shifting gears in a way as it moves into the development of several satellite deposits to augment the underground operation. That's the way where we've been able to leverage off of exploration results, good mine building skills and existing infrastructure. So the team continues to look at ways where they can extract value from the investments we've made, not only in infrastructure but in people over the last several years.

At Creston Mascota, that's been a big success over the last several years. It's coming to an end there. So thank you to that team for doing good job over the last few years, generating a lot of cash flow for us with a modest investment. And La India, although we did have an impairment of goodwill, it's not a function of the asset itself being impaired. In fact it continues to produce good quantities of gold at good cost, generates good cash flow and there are additional satellite opportunities that exist at La India to extend the mine life and there's still a lot of solid drill targets that we're going to be exploring with a significant budget over the next little while.

So just before I open it up for questions, a quick summary. As we said, from an operational standpoint 2018 was a strong year as we once again exceeded our production forecast and we did it at lower than expected unit cost. While we're doing that we were growing reserves, we were improving the quality of those reserves as the grades increased. We successfully advanced our Nunavut project and as we said, that really sets us up nicely in 2019 to produce record amounts of gold at stable cost with the ability to continue to grow production beyond 2019 as we get a full year production from our Nunavut platform and we would expect, based on the quality of that production, to be able to keep our costs under control and see a slight decline in unit costs and all in sustaining costs.

What we expect is to do is to obviously drive increased cash flow, but more importantly a cash flow per share. And what that will allow us to do, it will allow us to fund our project pipeline with internally generated funds, it will allow us to reduce our debt as it comes due and increase our dividend.

So, operator, on that, I'd be happy to open up the line for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Certainly. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Fahad Tariq with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Fahad Tariq -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. I know you touched on this a bit earlier. Can you clarify the reason for the $250 million goodwill impairment charge at Canadian Malartic, were there indicators of impairment and perhaps explain why the writedown is different from the $45 million that (inaudible) in the release. Thanks.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, going back to 2014, post the announcement of the acquisition, when the exchange ratios were set, the Agnico Eagle stock went up while our partner's stock went down. By the time the deal closed, then from an accounting standpoint, we were recording that transaction at a higher number than our partners were. So we had a larger goodwill number and as we said at the start, goodwill is not amortized. We mined since 2014. So when you take the combination of a goodwill number that doesn't change since 2014 with the fact that we have mined the open pit since 2014, with a combination of having our Kirkland Lake assets now being wholly owned by Agnico, so we take the Kirkland Lake valuation out of the impairment calculation this year for the first time, that really suggested that we should take the goodwill down by $250 million.

You manage (ph) number right, I think you said it was $45 million or so, about a $200 million difference which would largely probably reflect the added amount that we were booking going back to the time of the acquisition. And if you would -- if we were sort of depreciating the goodwill or amortizing it, which we're not allowed to do under IFRS from 2014, we probably would have amortized it by $250 million. So it all sort of ties in.

Fahad Tariq -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

That's helpful. Just switching gears for a second, on the M&A front versus looking at your organic growth opportunities, how do you weigh the exploration potential versus what could be acquired and what -- maybe high level, what's the kind of investment criteria that you're thinking about when you look at potential assets that are available, is it focusing on the right jurisdiction, the technical ability to improve operations, is it life of mine, any color on that would be helpful.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

It's all of that. I think you just have to go back to our history and our track record; going back to 2005 with Kittila, 2006 with Pinos Altos, 2007 with Meadowbank, 2010 with Meliadine, 2011 with La India, even 2014 with Osisko with -- a thesis there was that there was going to be an underground opportunity and we're seeing that potentially develop now through consistent exploration. It's largely focused on trying to be early and taking advantage of, let's say, geological opportunity.

When we go in with our own mine building team and operators, doing due diligence, understanding the risks and what is needed to ultimately turn one of those opportunities into a meaningful part of our business, we basically then taking on sort of geological risk and each of those deposits has grown from the original acquisition. So those are the types of things we're looking for. It's not easy, it's a lot more difficult now than it would have been say 10 years ago to find another Pinos Altos or to find another Kittila.

So that's why we're fortunate to not be in a situation where we're forced to do something because we've got declining reserves or declining production or dramatically rising cash flows. We've got the ability to continue to grow the business out through 2024 and we are working on projects now that we own in the pipeline to see how they could impact beyond 2023, 2024. That's why we're focused on drilling those opportunities, to understand the upside of the existing pipeline so that we can compare and contrast those opportunities for things that may exist in the market. So we're going to approach the sort of project evaluation of external opportunities at our usual customary measured pace without feeling any pressure to do anything.

Fahad Tariq -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from Mike Parkin with National Bank. Your line is open.

Michael Parkin -- National Bank Financial -- Analyst

Thanks guys. On Santa Gertrudis, could you give us a bit of an -- a little more detail in terms of what your early thoughts are there. It's pretty impressive (inaudible) resource to come in with, just like what's your exploration program involved in terms of -- are you focusing more on defining the envelope larger or improving up the resource?

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We're doing both at the moment, making sure that all of the historical information is good according to our standard, adding some infill drilling in the existing resources and conducting some exploration to grow the resources, while we are starting to put together some scoping and try to understand how we can advance it to the next step.

Michael Parkin -- National Bank Financial -- Analyst

Okay, that's really it from me. Congrats on the great quarter.

Operator

Your next question is from John Tumazos with Independent Research. Your line is open.

John Tumazos -- Independent Research -- Analyst

Thank you very much. I am concerned about how quickly the underground zones of Malartic come into production. We sure don't want you to run out a open pit or have trouble keeping the mill full. What's the soonest you think you could get to 10,000 tons a day there and what are the hurdles in terms of documenting the inferred configuring the ramps, permitting, could you loan the Yamana money if they don't have enough money to (inaudible) as fast as you, how can we get the ball rolling?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Well, I think at this stage there's a fairly important resource overall in the property and we're trying to find the short-term benefits to accompany the current pit life of mine, but also understanding scenarios around the longer-term underground scenarios. At this stage it has been scenarios analysis only. Like Sean said earlier, we're in the early stage and we will probably provide little bit more clarity on these aspects as we go into Q3.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

But I think it's fair to acknowledge that we do expect the size of that resource to continue to grow. And there's additional horizons there that have some potential, we need to drill those to understand those. So, it still needs a bit more work and we need to sit down with our partner, and for the other companies that have a vested interest from a royalty perspective in that region to lay out different thoughts on how we could proceed with the opportunity that exists underground.

John Tumazos -- Independent Research -- Analyst

What are the pivot points, let's just say the underground last decades in the open pit doesn't (ph). Can the mill drop from 55,000 or 60,000 tons a day to 25,000 tons a day in an efficient way, what is the economic cut off if you are underground-only in the second decade at 10,000 or 25,000 ton a day milling rate or 2 to 3 grams economic?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Well, the orebody and the geology will certainly define the mining rate, for one. And whatever the mining rate will be, we will be in a position to adapt the mill for that capacity. So, as far as the cut off grades are concerned, it all depends on the scenario and throughputs that are being selective, but close to say that we will be in a position that you will have a fairly interesting cut off grade to maximize the overall (inaudible).

John Tumazos -- Independent Research -- Analyst

Thank you and congratulations on all the good reserve, resource and production progress.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from Steven Butler with GMP Securities. Your line is open.

Steve Butler -- GMP Securities -- Analyst

Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Sean, you have several projects in your pipeline beyond 2023, are there one or two or three projects that you rank higher in that pipeline that could see the light of day earlier than some of the others?

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think the one that could have the most impact on production and cash generation would be Amaruq, given the high grade nature of it, given the fact that an underground would also impact the economics of the pit because we could mine some of the originally planned pit ore from an underground. So, that's the analysis we will have more -- we will bit more complete as we move through this year.

The one that we're working on as well would the Kirkland Lake, just trying to understand that opportunity, Upper Beaver, good grades, copper credit, Upper Canada growing, you know, what are the synergies with LaRonde, you know, we need to understand that. Can we come in with a modest amount of capital and move that forward. So we still need to to understand that one.

But those would be the ones that have potentially the most meaningful impact, but I think the strategy now is to continue with a fairly active exploration program. We've had one for the last several years. We're going to continue to push that. We know that several of these deposits will continue to grow and then we will allocate capital based on sort of return, but also on impact on the business; an impact on the business as we look beyond 2023 and 2024.

Steve Butler -- GMP Securities -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Sean. And then, certainly last question. What depths are you guys mining at right now at LaRonde, I guess it's just at around 3 kilometers or maybe a bit lower. What's your experience in terms of your dilution and temperatures et cetera and how deep does the reserve base reach?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Well, the future reserve base that was put in the guidance is at 3.4 kilometers at this stage, presently mostly mining around the 2.93 kilometer depth. We are developing just slightly below the 3.1 kilometer at this stage. So, as far as the working conditions are concerned, the conditions in general are in good shape. We are focusing as we want to develop the reserve at depth on implementing ventilation and cooling in 2019 (inaudible) the development, but so far I think that's about the extent of that at this stage.

Steve Butler -- GMP Securities -- Analyst

Okay, thanks very much guys.

Operator

Your next question is from Anita Soni with CIBC. Your line is open.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

Good morning, Sean and team, and congratulations on a very successful reserve, resource addition. I think that's the best one we've seen so far. My question is with regards to East Malartic. I think you -- I'm sorry if I missed it, I dropped off the call earlier, but could you talk a little bit about how that interlace with the (inaudible) Malartic and Barnat and where do you see Odyssey in that as well.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. We just had an update a little bit earlier and we're still in the assessment mode as Yvon just said a few minutes ago. And part of that is just really understanding how big it is. And that is also not just total ounces, but thickness and grade of the mineralization, which drives the underground mine, it will drive throughput rates.

As Yvon said, we could modify the plant to adjust to whatever the mining rate would be suggested by the thickness of the orebody. So, those are things that we're still working through at this point. But we have enough now to invest in a ramp to access it. The thinking now is that we are studying the structure above 600 meters. Ultimately, we know the mineralization goes below 600 meters, we believe it will continue to grow.

There is the potential for another horizon there, mineral horizon. So that's the focus of drilling. But as we just said as well, we'll have to sit down as we work on that analysis with all the vested interest in the region, the royalty holders, our partner Yamana and lay out different scenarios to come up with something that's optimal to justify future investment.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

Okay. And then just in terms of the capital budget, and as we think about sustaining capital sort of $325 million and then development capital of $300 million and then I think you were saying last night that in the press release 2 million to going up to 2.3 million ounces, would that push to 2.3 million ounces be incorporated within that sort of ongoing development capital or with...

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it is.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

So, those are mostly brownfield projects and if you decide to go after something that a little bit (multiple speakers).

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, that's the existing pipeline when we look at sort of our expanded life of mine plan, which incorporate some resource into that plan over and above reserve, that's sort of the CapEx envelope we're looking at to try to develop these opportunities at a measured pace and we're trying to do that so that we can continue to move those projects forward at the same time improve financial flexibility and hopefully continue to increase the dividend.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

Okay.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So, that's how it's set up.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

So basically it is 600-ish number and sort of -- you're going to climb to 2.3?

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we said $500 million to $700 million and that's gold price dependent. So we think that's a sufficient envelope to allow us to move the current pipeline forward to get to that sort of 10% to 15% above the 2 million ounce number. And as we go through this year, we'll have some more clarity on some of the key building blocks to allow us to get there.

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question is from Carey MacRury with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just a question on Meliadine, just wondering what the mining rate is there right now and how soon do you expect it to go to the full run rate?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Yeah, we're still mostly in development. We're generating about 12,000 to 15,000 tons of development in ore per month. We will be mining roughly between two to three stopes over the next quarter or so and then ramping up going forward, but we are going to be mining at a rate of toward the target, toward the end of the year and relying on the available stockpiles that are on surface that complement at this stage.

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

And what's the peak stockpile you're going to have there?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Well, we've put the -- at the end of January, we have a 180,000 tons of stockpile on (inaudible).

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

And before you start the mill up, how big you expect that to get to?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

We expect to drive down on that as we move forward.

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

You know, but it should grow between now and when the mill starts up?

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

No, probably not, we will try to maintain it as much as we can, but we'll start drawing down from that number.

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) This concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I'll now turn things back over to Sean.

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for your attention and for joining the call. And as always, if there's additional follow-up questions, feel free to give us a call. Thanks again.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Duration: 41 minutes

Call participants:

Sean Boyd -- Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Fahad Tariq -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Michael Parkin -- National Bank Financial -- Analyst

John Tumazos -- Independent Research -- Analyst

Yvon Sylvestre -- Senior Vice President, Operations-Canada & Europe

Steve Butler -- GMP Securities -- Analyst

Anita Soni -- CIBC -- Analyst

Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst

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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Avon Products (AVP) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Avon Products (NYSE:AVP) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 14, 2019 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Avon's fourth-quarter and full-year earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. The company will use slides to support today's prepared remarks. The slides will be visible via the webcast available on the company's Investor Relations website.

A downloadable PDF of the presentation will be made available at the end of the call. During the call today, the company will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which they believe to be useful to investors, although they should not be considered superior to the measures presented in accordance with GAAP. As a reminder, the company prospectively adopted the new revenue recognition accounting standard during the first quarter. To provide a fair comparison, information will be shared, excluding the impact of the standard.

This information is labeled like for like. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is included in the appendix of this webcast and in the company's earnings release. Both are located on the Investor Relations section of the company's website. This call will contain forward-looking statements that concern the company's business and financial strategies.

These statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are detailed in the cautionary statement available in today's slides on the company's Investor Relations website and in the company's SEC's filings. I will now turn the conference over to Amy Greene, vice president of investor and stakeholder relations. Ms. Greene, you may begin your conference.

Amy Greene -- Vice President of Investor and Stakeholder Relations

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to review Avon's fourth-quarter 2018 results. I'm here with Jan Zijderveld, Avon's CEO; and Jamie Wilson, CFO. Jan and Jamie will take you through our progress and our fourth-quarter results, and we will then move to a Q&A session. Slide 3 has this morning's agenda.

I will now hand the call over to Jan.

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Amy. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Today, we want to cover a few key areas. First, I will start to remind you of our journey so far.

Next, Jamie will share the quarter four financial results. Then, we will provide a business update of our progress how we're opening up Avon. Let's begin on Slide 4. It is hard to believe that it's already been a year since I joined Avon.

I remember how excited I was to get into the markets to listen and learn as much as possible about our representatives, all our bosses as we like to say, and what do we take to make Avon successful again. After spending time visiting virtually every market, we identified and addressed a few immediate fixes, starting with improving our service. Second, we pushed a new culture of performance and speed, establishing a rigorous meeting cadence and a renewed sense of urgency with Sprint teams focused on owning the outcomes for the immediate fixes, must win battles as we like to call them. Third and most importantly, we refocused the entire Avon business from rebooting and improving our direct selling model.

Many initiatives are under way to improve the end-to-end representative experience. The training and the satisfaction for her and to hold ourselves accountable to improve her earnings. During the September Investor Day, we presented our Open Up Avon strategy and outlined Avon's new success formula. We are building repeatable models to reboot direct selling, to create demand by strengthening the value of our brand and to unlock the big e-commerce opportunity for Avon and to use the power of our rich data, and finally, to dramatically simplify and open up our culture.

While we have many strengths to build upon, we have a big change agenda to execute and to build our new Avon. It will take time to fix, but we have made progress throughout each quarter. Now to Jamie to cover the financial results.

Jamie Wilson -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jan, and good morning. I will start on Slide 5. As a reminder, starting 1st of January 2018, we adopted the new revenue recognition standard, which is reflected in our fourth quarter results and outlined in our press release. Once again, we are providing like for like, or LFL, results.

Like-for-like provides a useful comparison of year-over-year figures that exclude the impact of the adoption of the new accounting standard on revenue recognition and our non-GAAP adjustments from our non-GAAP measures. Importantly, it also excludes our discontinued operations like Australia and New Zealand, which we exited around the middle of last year. For your convenience, you can find a table providing a reconciliation of the like for like, adjusted non-GAAP and reported information in the press release and in the appendix to this presentation, as well as on the Avon website. As a reminder, any discussions of revenue during today's call will be in constant dollars and our results are using like-for-like information in the presentation unless otherwise stated.

Turning to Slide 6, like-for-like revenue declined by 1.4%. And in our top 10 markets, the decline was 0.7%. Despite the year-over-year decline, quarter four was material improvement from the previous quarter where sales were down by 4%. For quarter four, the key drivers of the decline were in Brazil and the U.K., along with a 6% decline in Active Representatives, largely in the beauty brand segment and with newer representatives.

Adjusted gross margins declined by 140 basis points, largely due to the result of increased material and logistics costs in addition to FX pressure. As we outlined during our recent Investor Day, we have made a conscious effort to invest in representatives and our brand. In quarter four, we made material increased investment in representatives, recruitment and training, together with additional media spend over the prior year to create demand and rejuvenate our brand. We also invested in the representatives' incentives to help recover activity levels and reengage with our representatives.

This resulted in an adjusted operating margin of 6%, a decline of 420 basis points from the prior year. Restoring the relationship with our representatives, particularly in large markets like Brazil, is imperative. These and other investments are key to resetting the foundation for future success to turn around this market and restore growth. Moving to Slide 7, as I mentioned, fourth quarter revenue from reportable segments declined by 1.4% on a constant dollar basis.

Active Representatives declined 6%, with the largest declines in the U.K., Brazil and Russia, but average order was up by 5% on improved productivity. We also saw a 4% improvement in average representatives' sales and a 6% improvement in price mix this quarter. Shifting our focus more toward improved representative productivity is a priority. We continue to enhance our focus on revenue growth management, as well as investing in our representatives to improve their experience and help them earn more.

Total beauty sales fell 2%, largely driven by color, particularly impacted by the softness in Brazil. Sales from the innovations are encouraging, with multiple success with Avon's Ultra Mascara brand refresh. Mark innovation also performed well, while Color Trend was impacted by increased competition particularly in LatAm. Of note, fragrance improved to flat this quarter and average representative fragrance sales increased by 6%.

In quarter four, there were a few notable brand launches that contributed: New Avon Life Color, our newest fragrance designed by Kenzo Takada along with selected market launches by Far Away Rebel and Segno. Fashion and home grew by 1% with upside driven by sales in LatAm and Russia. And Mexico sales in home category were aided by the new mini brochures. The 6% improvement in price mix is being driven by our revenue growth management efforts, and Jan will share more about this later.

We expect to see continued improvement in our overall price volume mix, as well as we launch better, more on-trend innovative products, bundles, regimes and training of our representatives to increase her sales and her earnings. Moving to Slide 8, adjusted operating margin decreased by 420 basis points, driven by investments made in the representative experience. Adjusted gross margin decreased by 140 basis points on a 1.4% decline in revenue, primarily from FX pressure and an increase in material cost and logistics. Adjusted SG&A while lower than last year was an increase of 280 basis points as a percentage of revenue.

As I mentioned earlier, this was primarily as a result of investment in representatives for training and an advertising to create demand and excitement around the brand and an increased transportation cost. During the fourth quarter, we also achieved cost savings related to the new strategy, Open Up Avon, were approximately $20 million. Turning to Slide 9, our adjusted income tax provision was $3 million, which was a decrease of approximately $48 million compared to the previous year. Our structural and operational changes resulted in an annualized adjusted tax rate of approximately 64% for 2018, down from 76% last year.

Looking ahead for 2019, we expect to see further reductions in the range of 10% to 15% over the course of the year. Cash flow from operations for the three-month period was $161 million. Our cash from operations was largely impacted by lower earnings, higher inventory levels and exchange rate pressure. Our 2018 cash conversion is lower than anticipated largely due to lower earnings.

While we made some progress in reducing our inventory balances, it has been slower than we expected. As part of this, we have announced a 25% SKU reduction, together with taking an $88 million charge to reduce our inventory. This was designed to help improve cash conversion through 2019. In addition, we announced today that we entered a new three-year EUR 200 million senior secured revolving credit facility, which enhances our financial flexibility.

Currency headwinds negatively impacted quarter four adjusted operating profit by 150 basis points and a negative 12% of revenue. The currency headwinds increased significantly in the back half of 2018, primarily due to dramatic declines of the currencies in Argentina and Turkey, along with ongoing volatility in Brazil. Foreign exchange headwind will likely continue to pressure the business at roughly the same rate in early part of 2019. We are more aggressively taking price actions to help mitigate the revaluation and working to localize production in markets like Turkey, Russia and Argentina.

In summary, we are still in the early phase of our journey, but we are optimistic about the improvements we are seeing as a result of all of our actions. Now let me turn things back to Jan.

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Jamie. Moving up on Slide 11. Turning to the performance of our top markets. In the fourth quarter, we saw revenue improvements in four of our five top markets.

Mexico's fourth quarter revenue increased by 2.3%, the third consecutive quarter of growth, which was driven by innovation in Fashion and home and fragrance, coupled with an increased focus on training. Mexico is implementing the New Avon segmentation model, starting with the top earners program, the Stellar Circle. Advanced training behind this group of 40,000 beauty consultants is contributing to improved productivity of 25%, which help drive the overall improvement of net productivity by 2% in Mexico. We saw slight improvements in our market share this quarter in Russia's highly competitive and shrinking beauty market.

While trends are still negative, we continue to experience strength in fragrance and beauty. Argentina's strong growth continues, up 23% based on pricing to offset inflation and the ForEx headwinds. We continue to see the adoption and usage of our new e-commerce platform, as well as active reps increased by 4% in Argentina. In the Philippines, we grew 5% over the prior year as a result of our successful representative reengagement activities that left due to the service issues that we had in the middle of last year.

In addition, the Philippines successfully introduced a social media training platform, which also helped reengaged representatives. Finally, Brazil, very encouraged to see the improving trends. Revenue declined by 4.6%, including a benefit from the non-incurring IPI tax. Excluding this benefit, Brazil's revenue would have declined 8%, which is an improvement on the prior quarter.

The improvements were largely due to the refocus on the basics, including improved service, the new incentive programs and the enhanced training that resulted in an improved field activation during the Christmas holidays. Taking a closer look at the Brazil's progress on Slide 12, after only one quarter, we are seeing the impact of our new General Manager Jose's experience as he has effectively diagnosed and become address Brazil's core issues. He and the team have mixed quickly to develop Brazil's turnaround plan fully aligned with Open Up Avon priorities. They started with a focus to reboot direct selling to improve service and training, to improve the critical campaign management progress, all designed to improve the earnings, enhance her experience at every touch point.

Second, the team is reinventing the brand by improving the brochure quality and the brochure look and feel, sharper and much better price and promotion management. And finally, they are simplifying the business. For example, they plan to significantly reduce the number of SKUs and focus more on the core brands and the biggest SKUs, all while making the business much leaner and much simpler. Brazil has also step changed its focus on e-commerce and social selling.

They have set up a dedicated e-commerce business unit, reporting directly to Jose, and this unit already achieves five times the online sales in the second half of last year 2018. The Brazilian team is off to a good start, and we will continue to keep you updated on their progress as we expect the business to return to growth and significantly improve its profitability. On Slide 13. During our recent Investor Day, we outlined the four underlying pillars that are necessary to turn around Avon and regain our competitive position in the global beauty market.

They are: first, to reboot social selling; secondly, to create more demand for our beauty consultants and increase the value of our brand; third, unlock e-commerce and the power of data, as well as capture the significant Asian growth opportunity; and finally, to dramatically simplify our business and open up. Starting on Slide 14 and the progress we are making to reboot social selling. This companywide priority is well on the way and already showing promise as we move to one-size-fits-all mindset to renewed focus on deleveraging and segmented approach designed around repeatable and scalable models around recruitment, training, representative tools and incentives designed to energize, engage our representatives, while improving their satisfaction and earnings. We are already seeing change with significant signs of improvements coming from many areas of our markets.

And I shared several examples of this during our company updates. But there is still much work to be done to fully reboot and implement our strategy. We are committed to getting it right, and are addressing the different starting points across our different markets, with our focus on repeatable models. What we learn in one market, we can quickly apply in other markets, thereby maximizing our learnings, as well as impacting the total impact of our programs.

On Slide 15, deleveraging and segmentation and using our rich data are critical to unlocking the success of our direct selling model. In 2018, we made progress defining and testing our approach. Our focus in 2019 is on optimizing and rolling out our successful models and learnings across the key markets. We are gaining a better understanding of the different characteristics, preferences and behaviors of our different representatives.

And as you see on this slide, our designing targeted of trainings, tools and supports to align her goals and her needs. Turning to Slide 16 and the important topic of recruiting. Last quarter, I shared that we are implementing significant changes in our approach to recruiting and it improved both the effectiveness and the quality of our recruiting models, testing and building on best practices. We are leveraging the learnings from India of mass scale recruitment meetings, which we rolled out to the Philippines.

We also did nearly 90 big recruiting events in South Africa, resulting in 28% growth in new appointments over quarter three. During the fourth quarter, we continue our mass recruiting events in India, resulting in the best quarter since 2013. In Russia, we are experimenting with the new beauty bars in shopping malls, as a new innovative way to recruit and train our representatives. We also learned these beauty bars in the middle of shopping malls help build our brand quality reception.

The beauty bars is a significant improvement both for the representative, as well as the consumer experiencing, and connection with the Avon brand allowing her to personally interact, learn and see the immediate results. Over 50% of the attendees placed orders, and we saw a 20% improvement in representative conversion rates. That is four times higher than the average events in Russia. We continue to innovate test and share new ways to engage and delight our representatives.

The majority of our 10 markets are working to localize these and are the best practices as part of the 2019 recruiting plans, including the use of our new e-recruiting and e-appointments tools, where we are seeing promising results in Brazil. Testing and deploying repeatable scalable models globally and locally will continue in 2019 and are key to Avon's future success. On Slide 17, recruiting, communicating and training go hand-in-hand. We are arming our representatives with the right kind of training.

We call this training with intent. We understand the importance of engaging and training new representatives during the first 90 days. We made good progress with our training efforts during the fourth quarter and substantially exceeded our goal to train 500,000 representatives with over 700,000 representatives participating in face-to-face training programs, plus over 500,000 representatives taking advantage of our new online e-training. For example, Mexico launched a variety of training events, including the Stellar Circle for the top 40,000 representatives, which resulted in an increase of over 25% in the average orders.

Supporting our new representatives is key. Hence, the Mexico focused on the first 90-day programs for our new representatives. This was launched nationwide and attracted over 57,000 participants, resulting in active rep growth for the first time in many years. Further, the average orders increased by 2% and units per representative increased by 5% during quarter four.

This repeatable model is being rolled out across other markets. Reversing the decision made over five years ago to cut training, we reinstated the training programs globally and locally and is vital to driving retention and helping become a beauty embassador and advisor to the clients. Fully rebuilding our training muscle is going to take time. We're testing new concepts, learning new insights and sharing best practices and scaling what works to more markets.

Turning to Slide 18. In this section, we will cover a few key areas to drive demand and increase both the relevance and the value of our brand. Turning to Slide 19, let me share how we are thinking differently. Historically, we managed the Avon Care brand, our third largest brand locally, which resulted in multiple and overlapping formulas, many SKUs across many regions, there was, therefore, a tremendous opportunity to rationalize and reset this brand.

This led to restaging the Avon Care brand with some very exciting results. The team relaunched the Avon Care brand with a new packaging design and new range architecture. They reduced base formulas from just seven to two and reduced the SKUs by 40%. This removed more than 20 nonessential ingredients in saving of $1.2 million and 100 basis points improvement in gross margin.

What is most impressive is that we did all this and grew sales last year in 2018 by 10%. Moving to Slide 20, focusing on innovating and actions to unlock the growth of Avon's core and big brands, starting with ANEW in 2019. During 2019, we'll take the Avon Care lessons and refresh and reposition ANEW. We will add new exciting training tools, including interactive training and shareable videos, product information cards, as well as a new diagnostic check tool.

We will launch new ANEW skin care range, as well as extend the brand by launching new innovative platforms each quarter, starting this quarter with Anew Vitamin C product. This product has 40 oranges in each jar. The new plan to rejuvenate the ANEW brand highlights our focus on our big strong brands with better and bigger innovations, a higher price points and better materials for our representatives to help her earn more and sell more. We are building a much stronger marketing plans for 2019, with better and bigger on-trend innovation.

We will share more of these exciting new plans as we move through the 2019. Moving to Slide 21, revenue management to create more value. During the Investor Day, we shared the need to increase our average brochure price through using old revenue management levers, bigger innovations and higher prices, grow higher ticket items with bundles and regimes, improve the mix with faster growth in fragrance and skin care, as well as significantly better promotion and price management. Our quarter-four average brochure prices increased by 6% over the year to $3.52.

We are pleased with our early progress on promotion management and improved net revenue management, a focus that we'll continue throughout 2019. Our price mix of 5% improved again this quarter, largely driven by focused price increases, improved promotion management and the introduction of more premium ranges and more bundles. The bundles represented 20% of sales in the last quarter. Our overall revenue management efforts contributed to an increase of 5% in average orders.

Turning to Slide 23, our priority is to increase access through digital and e-commerce. First, we focused to improve the digital tools for our beauty consultants to help her run her business and make it easier for her. All her orders are now online and digital. And now in over 20 markets, covering 80% of our beauty consultants, she can also order from any mobile device.

Finally, we also launched the e-self-appoints for app. So you can become an Avon consultant in minutes, all via your smartphone. In Brazil, our new online e-appointment app, a real-time paperless process, which improved the representative experience, had a 94% adoption rate in the test region. What we've learned is not enough to only have the tools, we must incorporate training to accelerate adoption and effectively drive sales.

Moving to Slide 24, driving e-commerce as a new channel and a big new growth driver for Avon. Everyone knows the Avon brand, but today, you can only really buy Avon if you know a representative. Hence, the e-commerce opportunity is so big and a big growth opportunity for Avon. In 2018, we grew our online sales by 56%, increasing every quarter and nearly doubling it in the second half.

In the second quarter of 2018, we launched our new Instant Messenger Brochures. In just over two quarters, this has now been rolled out to 60 markets. By the year end, the unique visitors count reached 5.5 million views and the average cart value is significantly larger than the average of the brochure sales. Training has been critical to maximize e-commerce adoption, usage and to drive sales.

Last week, I met LeAnna in the U.K., an enterprising beauty entrepreneur who has built a highly successful and growing Avon business, doing this now full-time. She built this business using only e-commerce and digital tools, and she did it in just over 18 months. We are doubling down to help her and other digital e-consultants build that business and become an effective and successful micro-influencer, building her Avon profile and spreading Avon content across their social networks. We will give a new digital assets every week to use and build her business.

In 2019, we're poised to accelerate the deployment of e-commerce and mobile capabilities across our business. Additionally, in each country, we have established a separate e-commerce business unit charged with driving e-commerce sales, reporting directly to the General Manager. Moving to Slide 25, an unlocking growth in Asia. This is another significant growth opportunity for Avon.

Within the Avon -- within the Asian market, the beauty, face care and fragrance markets grew 6% over the last five years, and this growth is expected to accelerate over the next five years. We want to take part in this growth, and we have a strong and known brand in Asia to do this. We have recruited a strong team who are building an aggressive five-year growth plan both in China and India. In India, people are excited and want to do the business with our well-known Avon brand.

Reenergizing this market is a key growth opportunities. Avon popular opportunity meetings continue to effectively generate interest, resulting in the fourth quarter increase in Active Representatives by 14%, an increase in retention of 2%. For India, quarter five was our best quarter since 2013 with a 27% growth rate. Avon's brand strength is another big asset as we reestablish our China business.

We have shifted our business model to focus on three different channels: our Avon franchise beauty boutiques, the retail distribution channel and the big and fast-growing e-commerce channel. Our e-commerce business in skin and fragrance are off to a good start, and we are now adding color as a new category. Notably, with the ongoing success of our celebrity-endorsed fragrances, Avon's Little Black Dress, which has become a leading fragrance brand in China. Avon's successful promotion Alibaba Single's Day, which was five times larger as it was in the past year elevated us to a key account status on their platform and it will enable us to increase awareness and promotions in 2019.

Finally, China continues to upgrade our over 1,000 Avon brand experience beauty boutiques to demonstrate our products and innovations and create the perfect online/off-line Avon experience. Next on Slide 26, throughout 2018, we made good progress in transforming Avon's culture to become more open, to new ways of thinking, simpler, more agile and much more performance-orientated, accountable for actions and outcomes. Moving to Slide 27, let me share how we are dramatically simplifying our business, getting leaner, simpler and faster. Recently, we announced we entered into an agreement to sell our China manufacturing facility to the fresh-up company, a subsidiary of LG house care and healthcare and one of Asia's largest consumer goods beauty businesses.

We have anticipated net sales proceeds of Avon of $44 million of the closing. The sale of an important component of the optimizing of our assets. As part of the transaction, we agreed to enter into a manufacturing and supply agreement, where the factory will manufacture products for our fast-growing Chinese business and other markets, while maximizing the capacity of the plant. This agreement is another example of our Open Up strategy and strategic shift to leveraging the best-in-class partners to improve efficiency and optimize our assets.

Over the past several months, we have taken decisive actions to identify and capture cost savings with our company's existing commercial practices, supply chain and global infrastructure footprint. We also closed our Rye offices and announced the sale of this site, and we are reviewing all our assets to ensure they're all fit for purpose. We recently announced plans to reduce our global workforce by approximately 10% to make a leaner organization that is better aligned with our business needs. These actions, coupled with the reduction of 8% completed in 2018, expected to result in an annualized pre-tax savings of more than $100 million by the end of 2019.

We have become too complex and cluttered with too many SKUs and too much inventory. Therefore, we have initiated an SKU reduction program, with a target of a 25% reduction in SKUs by 2019. Reducing the long tail will help make demand management easier, improve our service levels and above all help simplify our business. During the fourth quarter, we already reduced our SKUs by roughly 6% from the levels in quarter three.

To clean up our inventory, in the fourth quarter, we announced that we are making a 15% reduction and taking a one-off inventory of obsolescence write-off of approximately $88 million. Combined these efforts will advance the simplification of Avon's operation and drive down cost. Turning to Slide 28, I will share the progress that we've made building our talent and driving the cultural change. Over the last year, we have been attracting significant new talent and capabilities to Avon, including the recent addition of a new global supply chain officer, Vikram.

And this week, we announced Kay Nemoto as our new chief strategy and HR officer. By the end of 2018, 73% of our top 35 leaders were new, and bring fresh perspectives and talent to our company, all fully committed to turnaround Avon. As we move into 2019, we've made a conscious effort to move marketing, R&D and an end-to-end supply chain responsibility closer to the markets. We've implemented a comprehensive new governance cadence with tighter controls and established accountability for targets.

All managers have clear goals with 70% of the annual bonuses tied directly to their local markets' results. I could not be happier with a deep and experienced bench that we are building and putting in place to lead the new Avon. On Slide 29. Closing our 2018, we want to recap the progress against the items we presented on the Investor Day in September.

We said in the second half of 2018, we would train half a million representatives, but we exited that, training over 1.2 million in just the fourth quarter. We presented the three-year target of $400 million savings to fund our fuel-for-growth strategy. And in the fourth quarter, we booked $20 million toward that amount. As we discussed, we have sharpened our focus on revenue management and pricing and saw a greater than 5% improvement in net price and mix during the fourth quarter.

With our focus on representative training, we expected to spend $10 million on those programs and during the second half of the year, we did. While sharpening our product portfolio, we are focusing on launching new relevant products that provide better earning opportunities for her. And in the second half of 2018, we launched more than 300 such products. We are in the process of working on the relaunch of our global brand positioning, and we have attracted new talent into Avon, building on our rich history in beauty and direct selling.

And lastly, we said that we would launch e-brochures in more than 40 markets, and we are pleased to say that by the end of the year, we had them available in 60 markets, as well as rolled out My Avon Store to over 20 countries, with 16% of our representatives adopting this new My Avon Store. Concluding on Slide 30. It's been quite a busy year, starting with the basics. We hit the short-term fixes hard in the first half of the year, while we worked to build the new team, change the culture and define the strategy we shared with you on the Investor Day.

Opening up Avon is driven by simplifying and focusing our business, people and our cost structure. We have moved to sell underutilized assets, right-size our organization and cost structure, all while moving key functions closer to the markets. We are making tough decisions with speed, while holding people accountable for their results. As we move into 2019, our focus is on execution.

We must continue to drive the improvements that we have made outlined throughout today's discussion, while focusing the team on rolling out the repeatable models that will drive the turnaround. We have built a strong, capable and determined team ready to lead and drive Avon's success on to the next leg on our journey. As we have said before, change takes time, and we will not do it without our brands, but we are determined to return Avon to growth and to reclaim its competitive position in the market. Thank you for joining us today.

Now we would like to take the opportunity for questions. Let me turn back to Amy to start this process.

Amy Greene -- Vice President of Investor and Stakeholder Relations

[Operator instructions] Operator, can you please open the Q&A session?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj with Bernstein.

Ali Dibadj -- Bernstein -- Analyst

So I will try to squeeze in two. One is just around the improvements that you mentioned around Russia, a little bit better negative one; Brazil, again obviously still negative; but improving a bit, Mexico. How much do you think that your improvement actions you're taking? Can you measure that perhaps from a market share perspective versus macro improving, which we are clearly hearing from other companies and local sources in Brazil and Mexico? So just kind of how much of your actions is question number one? And then number two is, although you say you're on the right track and you say there's some improvement here, the results are still, obviously, choppy and will continue to be choppy, has your confidence changed at all in terms of the idea that you're doing enough and spending back enough and changing enough and making bold enough moves to get to your kind of near-term guidance that you mentioned before? So love those two questions if you can, please.

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Ali, thanks a lot and good to hear, again. Also, we forgot obviously, it's Valentine's Day, so hope you all -- and Valentine was basically designed for Avon, the company for women and for looking after each other, so I hope you all having a good Valentine's Day, including you, Ali. So on your two questions, are we still in green shoots because of the macro or because of the things we're doing? I think in the short term, the macros haven't really helped or hindered us, specifically in Brazil. In Russia, by the way, the macro is actually quite tough, and we're seeing some shared gain.

So in a tough environment, actually we're seeing a little bit of a share gain. In the other big markets, specifically Mexico, I think, really the actions that we're taking of specifically rebooting our direct selling operations, investing in recruitment, investing in training, investing in the field is really starting to show us that it can be done and that the fundamentals of the business are improving. And on Brazil and our focus is specifically on Brazil because we got really the reset going on. I think all of the same things are starting to happen.

Now with a bit of luck, we both get underlying better business and a little bit of tailwinds from the improving macros in that country. But I would say that short term of what we're seeing now, it's our own work and it's our own initiatives that are giving us more confidence that we're working on the right things, whether it's in direct selling, whether it's strengthening our brand and our marketing activities, whether it's step changing and really focusing on e-commerce and digital selling and making our business much, much simpler. I mean, I think, we were clogged up too many SKUs, too much inventory, too many processes, an organization that wasn't too siloed. So all of those things coming together is, I think, slowly and incrementally improving the situation.

And are we doing enough? Yes, I think if you look at it, I think we're doing enough. I think we're doing a heck of a lot. If you think about, we have identified the issues. We've got, I think, a very clear agenda with our four pillars to attack and address the issues.

We're putting a new field -- new team in the field in terms of who's going to do that, lots of new players, lots of new capabilities that we're building and buying in whether it's direct selling capabilities and people that we bought in and placed in key places, whether it's e-commerce capabilities and people that we're putting in places, by the way, of note, new marketing people that we're putting in place that really know how to build our brands and build our innovations, better innovations, stronger innovations. And of course, the last two appointments, a Senior Supply Chain Head now, Vikram, who is joining also the EC to really look at our asset base, our cost structures to see how we can run our logistics operations better, to manage our inventory in a better way. So all of those things starting I think to come together. We're planting lots of seeds and giving water to those, while we're continuing to take out the weeds.

And are hopefully one day -- and we're starting to see now in Q4, some of those flowers starting to come through the field, Ali.

Ali Dibadj -- Bernstein -- Analyst

And if I may, just on that last point in terms of weeding things, one of the interesting moves that you made, bold moves where selling some of these underutilized assets, obviously, in Asia as well. Do you think you're done there? Is that review over? Or is that going to be ongoing from a sale of assets perspective?

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

No. That's ongoing. I mean, we picked the obvious one, which was obviously the China factory, which was a big factory which totally underutilized and we found, I think, a great solution with LG Care, where they will take over all the factory, all the people. They will start investing in it.

They'll start filling up and we'll really build a strategic partnership with them to really drive that to the next level. Secondly, the Rye offices. We said we want to be out of the Rye office before the end of the year and move our IT people to better locations. We've done that, and we hope to sell the facility very, very soon.

And then we're looking at all our assets, every single asset that we have. We're reviewing, is it fit for purpose, specifically we're reviewing our warehouses around the world. Can we find better solutions to utilize those better, better different partnerships? So that is also under full scope and full review to both get better operations and unlock cash where possible.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Lane with Lane Research.

Doug Lane -- Lane Research -- Analyst

I just wanted to focus on the SKU reductions here. I understand the need for it, and it makes a lot of sense to me, but what do you think the impact will be? Have the reps found out or been notified about the reductions? And what do you think the impact will be on sales at least in the near term?

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

So Doug, thanks for your question. Well, I have -- let me just -- you might agree, and I have done this many, many, many times. And it is always -- people get a little bit nervous, but I can reassure you, 100% that if you focus your SKUs on the top sellers and take out all the sort of clutter and complexity of all those small items, you get not only a better business, simpler business, but a faster-growing business. And I knew at care, example that we showed, which was our third biggest brand.

We reduced SKUs by 40%. We reduced the base formulations from seven to two core formulations, and we relaunched it and we grew the brand double-digit. And I can show you example, after example, after example, that a fewer SKUs makes healthy business and easier to run business and drives growth. We have a phenomenally long tail in Avon and shockingly long tail in Avon.

So it's a low-hanging fruit to simplify the business to focus on the bigger SKUs. And when we do the analysis of the top 100 SKUs or the top 250 SKUs and the remaining 50% of the SKUs, they contribute very, very little to the total sales. So I think, this is sort of the basics of the basics of running a tighter, sharper portfolio, which will save costs, improve our service, make forecasting much easier and drive the organization to focus on the big powerful, more profitable SKUs. It's cleaning the house basically to get a better-looking house.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson.

Linda Bolton-Weiser -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

So when you talked about all your different initiatives there, one of the things you said was a new mini brochure, I think, for Fashion and home in Mexico. Can you just generally talk about the wider topic, that seems to me like increasing complexity if you're starting a new mini brochure, and yet you're trying to reduce complexity. So maybe you could just take that one example and show why that is something that makes sense? And then also in terms of all of these things that you have going on, all of these initiatives and you're trying this and different things in different markets, how are you able to assess the ROI and all the different money that you're spending toward trying to try out like the boutiques I think you mentioned in one market and training and all of that? How are you looking at the ROIs to be able to better focus maybe fewer initiatives but higher returns on the initiatives that you're doing?

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

So thanks, Linda, for these two questions. One is the mini brochures. First and foremost, I think it's important that this is our marketing mechanism. This is the tools that we give to our representatives to reach for customers.

And we're doing -- and it's a core of our businesses at store basically. So we're investing in better brochures, better laid out brochures. Jose in Brazil is actually reducing the brochure size, but increasing -- the number of pages, but increasing the size and making the pages a little bit more attractive again and the whole layout, and we're really looking immediately at effectiveness of one brochure versus another one. Another idea that we're doing is the mini brochures.

We've done that in the past. They're quite effective to different audiences. So I like the fact that we're doing these things with speed and flexibility and absolutely no complexity at all. The complexity actually comes in SKUs, comes with a number of supplies that we have, the number of raw materials that we have.

It's in the system. But front end, we need to deleverage. We need to think about what she needs to become more successful. Whether this printed mini brochures or think about what we can now do with the IM brochures, which are the digital versions of that.

So we can have many digital brochures, which you can make in a couple of days and send out to different audiences, at different times, around different themes. I've seen some countries that have done the e-brochure, the IM brochure dedicated for Valentine's Day, which then the representative can spread across her Facebook friends or Instagram network. So experimenting and driving different solutions and brochures and it doesn't cause complexity, but really drives growth and innovation. The second one, on your initiatives and yes, we're doing many things, but the many things are around all our key themes.

And I think that's really important to come through. With activity streams that we're putting in are very, very focused about the strategy that we're doing. So we're doing lots of things about how to recruit better, should we do big meetings, should we do small meetings, how do you -- what's the script that you use. I was in South Africa a few months ago, and we were testing different scripts.

So you get 30, 40 people into a room. What's the best script that you should use? Which one works better? And what you start finding that in one neighborhood -- I was in the black neighborhood just out of Jo'burg, and one script did very, very well there. Then we went to another neighborhood. We drove for a little while.

And that was a sort of more middle-class neighborhood, and we had to adjust the script because the people's lives is different and the people's expectations are different and I like that very much. And one, because we are data-rich company. We follow them. It's OK.

Our success over this course versus that course. And I think you heard also through my presentation, we have lots and lots of data. So we're doing all these activities to see how we can recruit better, how we train better, how we retain better, how do different representatives behave in different areas and that optimizes our marketing mission. So I think, we're doing activities around the themes that we have identified and we're measuring success.

And then as I talk about, we build repeatable models to say what's successful, what works and those ones then we rollout with discipline. So it is a little bit learn and test pass and then scale what works. And I think that's really a great sort of management technique or to be able to drive the change programs that we need.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steph Wissink with Jefferies.

Steph Wissink -- Jefferies -- Analyst

I just have a follow-up question on your comment at the very end of your prepared remarks. I think I caught everything, but you've deployed your mobile catalog in 60 markets, and I think you said 20 markets have been My Avon Store. Can you just give us an update on how we should think about 2019 rollouts and the adoption of that My Avon Store interface?

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks, Steph. So yes, so we're really focused very, very strongly on e-commerce. I think the case for e-commerce for Avon's is obvious.

It started with the opening slide. Many people -- almost everyone in all our countries knows us, but they can't buy us unless you know a representative or have access to the physical brochure. So that's the really huge opportunity and that's why we're doubling down on e-commerce. And we have the two platforms that we're driving: one is the IM brochure, which we only started, I think, in April, May from zero, and we now have in 60 markets which is essentially every single country in which we operate.

And what we see is, we went from two and a half million views in Q3 to 5.5 million views in Q4, and we just started seeing increased adoption and more and more representatives understanding how to use it, but also us understanding how to use it. So one is, obviously, we just repeat with physical brochure as an IM brochure, but what we also start seeing that we can do different brochures at different times maybe even targeted of different groups. So that's also in 2019 will continue around the IM brochure. We're also adding extra functionality to the IM brochure, including which we're testing now direct delivery.

So the IM brochure now gets delivered by the representatives. We're now testing the IM brochure that you can order it and get it directly delivered to your home. So we continue to build and drive functionality to make it better and better. The My Avon Store is really the sort of platform for the representatives.

It's first store face. That is being rolled out now to over 20 markets. I think, we added another two this week. And in the markets in which we operate, 16% of the reps have opened the store.

And that's really, really encouraging. And then the trick is to not only get them to open the store, but teach them how to build the business and find the successful ones like, LeAnna which I met last week in the U.K. that had build her business without any physical contact. The way she builds her business all through My Avon Store, driving new customers, driving her business, electronically, using My Avon Store.

What we're now doing is My Avon Store gets updated in terms of the program, in terms of the app every two weeks. So we're building a better app every two weeks. So we get a cadence a bit like you see on your iPhone, new update, new update, every two weeks with new functionality, better programs. So that's one thing.

The second thing we're doing with My Avon Store is making sure that we provide better content for her. So we've now -- our new marketing team, which I think I'm also very excited about. We got some really good new marketing people. We've appointed a new agency to every week release new assets, i.e., new little forms, new little demos, new little photos and ideas that we then spread out to these e-reps who then spread it out across their network to make them really micro influences.

And we've now set up a pipeline of asset generation, which will guard every week to help her drive her business back to My Avon Store. So we're at the beginning of a journey, but that's very, very exciting happening. So it's the platforms that we have My Avon Store and My IM brochure. It's educating her to use it, and then giving her assets and ideas and products and promotions and gifts, so we can drive her sales.

Steph Wissink -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Jan, I'm excited to ask one follow-up to that, on rep attrition. Should we think about 2018 really as a year focused on training and I think you qualified that investment at $10 million. In 2019, we should start to see some activations regarding recruitments? Or how do we square up some of these great initiatives at the rep level in mobile, e-commerce, the dynamics of them that you just described with the continuation of declines in the active and total reps?

Jamie Wilson -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. They all hang together, of course, a little bit. So the other one -- the first one actually we're really driving, as well as recruitment. We're going to get more people into Avon as well.

So what you see? If you look at Q4 over Q3, we have added 170,000 net additions to the recruitment in Q4. That's a 12% increase on Q3. So we're really driving also all those recruitment events. In India alone, 100,000 extra people were recruited.

And so the first thing is get them in. The second thing then is to train them and that starts with a 90-day training -- it's our 90-day training to get those ones who want to earn money into the program, so they're not only recruited but they all can start selling and making some money. And therefore, this focus is on training. And the output of that is improved productivity.

So her sales go up and her earnings go up, and we teach not only to sell more, but also sell more profitable product, which is where the product training comes in, so that we teach her how to sell skincare, to teach her how to scale bundles, to teach her how to sell fragrances. And so these things all hang together. And what we start to see is that we start to see the productivity improving. So recruitment is up on Q3 and Q4.

Training is significantly up and the average price of those people and, therefore, their earnings is also significantly up. And they all hang together, and we should see ongoing improvements to support that, therefore, we need a stronger brand with better pure innovation and a simpler portfolio. So that's why these things are connected and are starting to work in more and more countries.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Katie Grafstein with Barclays.

Katie Grafstein -- Barclays -- Analyst

I was wondering if you could talk a little about your newly announced partnership with Rappi in Brazil and have you seen any early successes for this? And maybe is this the type of partnership you consider doing in other regions outside of Latin America?

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Katie. That's great. So what we are -- that was a really nice experiment test that we're doing in São Paulo to really show that we're serious about e-commerce and we're driving, obviously, many initiatives, which is the direct delivery to consumers in most countries for My Avon Store and what I think Jose and the team are doing is going a step further with a two-hour delivery window, a bit like ordering your hamburger or your pizza. Can we do that as well? And we're doing that.

So what I'm encouraging is just to do many different things in testing on e-commerce platform with different partners in Rappi in Brazil is just another one, and that's looking good and looking promising. But I can tell you and I'm encouraging the business to become more entrepreneur, more testing in this area and see what works and what doesn't work and then those models could work in São Paulo, but that model could then maybe do in Shanghai or in London or in Mexico City. So the trick for us now is that we have more testing and learning going on in different places, but that we then roll the learnings and the successful models out in more faces. So test and learn in a small way and then scale and drive across the world in a big way.

And that's really a sort of new culture that we're trying to build.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks, everyone, for joining. I really appreciate all the interest in Avon, and we look forward to the next call in May for the quarter one results. So thanks very much, and have a happy Valentine's Day, again.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 62 minutes

Call Participants:

Amy Greene -- Vice President of Investor and Stakeholder Relations

Jan Zijderveld -- Chief Executive Officer

Jamie Wilson -- Chief Financial Officer

Ali Dibadj -- Bernstein -- Analyst

Doug Lane -- Lane Research -- Analyst

Linda Bolton-Weiser -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Steph Wissink -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Katie Grafstein -- Barclays -- Analyst

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