Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Posts Q2 Earnings Beat, Q3 Outlook Miss

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) reported its latest quarterly earnings results after hours Thursday, which topped analysts’ revenue and earnings expectations but shares fell as its current-quarter outlook was below estimates.

The video game maker announced that its net income for its second quarter of fiscal 2018 came in at $402 million, or 52 cents per share. The figure came in ahead of the company’s net income from its year-ago quarter of $243 million, or 32 cents per share.

On an adjusted basis, Activision Blizzard brought in earnings of 41 cents per share, which was stronger than the Wall Street consensus estimate of 35 cents per share, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters in a survey.

The company added that its adjusted revenue tallied up to $1.39 billion, which marked a 2.1% decline compared to the $1.42 billion it raked in during the second quarter of fiscal 2017. Analysts were projecting Activision Blizzard to bring in revenue of $1.38 billion, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

For its third quarter of the current fiscal year, the company forecasts its adjusted earnings to be 47 cents per share, which is well below the Wall Street guidance of 66 cents per share. The company also sees its adjusted revenue as being $1.62 billion, bellow the $1.87 billion that analysts call for in their outlook.

ATVI stock was down about 1.3% after the bell Thursday as the company’s third-quarter guidance underwhelmed. Shares were up about 1.3% during regular trading hours.

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Schlumberger (SLB) Ticks Down 0.2% Ahead of Earnings: What To Expect

Shares of Schlumberger (SLB ) ticked down 0.2% during regular hours Thursday, the last day of trading before it releases its latest quarterly earnings report. Investors displayed apathy ahead of the report, but this is certainly still a stock to watch once the full results are in.

Schlumberger is the largest oilfield services player in the world, with presence in every major energy market. It boasts an attractive reservoir catalog and over 100,000 employees. However, it has comparatively smaller exposure to shale, where more drillers have gathered following a partial recovery in crude prices. Given the firm’s relatively lukewarm Q1 earnings report, eyes will be on Schlumberger to see if it has managed to more effectively capitalize on the recently turbulent but still strong oil market.

According to our latest Zacks Consensus Estimates, analysts expect Schlumberger to report earnings of $0.43 per share on $8.34 billion in revenue. These results would mark year-over-year growth rates of 22.9% and 11.7%, respectively.

Investors should also note that SLB’s consensus earnings projection has trended downward over the course of the quarter. Multiple negative revisions have caused the Zacks Consensus Estimate to tick four cents lower in the past 90 days. The company has also seen negative earnings estimate projections for the following quarter and current fiscal year. However, it has also seen two positive revisions for the following fiscal year, one of which came in the last week. This mixed revision activity has contributed to the stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Looking at share price performance, SLB has essentially traded sideways, losing 0.2% over the past year. The stagnation has continued as of late, with the firm losing 0.8% on a year-to-date basis. More recently, shares have dropped about 3.4% over the trailing 12 weeks.

A strong earnings beat might be what SLB needs in order to break out of its slumber. To gauge how likely the company is to outperform estimates tomorrow morning, we can turn to our exclusive Earnings ESP figure.

Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change.

This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.

A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.

SLB currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.11%. This, combined with its Zacks Rank, leaves us inconclusive about its chances at beating earnings estimates on Friday. Still, it is worth noting that Schlumberger has not missed earnings expectations for 8 quarters in a row.

Make sure to check back here for our full analysis once Schlumberger reports!

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Don’t Be Fooled by Pedevco’s 700% Rally: PED Stock Will Plummet

Pedevco (NYSEAMERICAN:PED) — and PED stock — looked like another casualty of the changing oil and gas landscape. But Pedevco aka Pacific Energy Development, looks to have saved itself… for now. Thanks to a debt restructuring agreement at the end of June, Pedevco has avoided immediate insolvency. As a result, PED stock has gone on a tear, rising as much as 1,000% in recent weeks. So what now? Well, the PED stock forecast is far from sunny.

The past few years has been a terrible time for American oil and gas companies. The plunge in oil prices from ~$100/barrel to as low as $27 in 2016 wiped out many exploration and production companies’ balance sheets. The persistently low price of natural gas hasn’t helped matters. As a result, small oil and gas companies like Pedevco have been going bust at a rapid pace in recent times.

And Pedevco hasn’t escaped that fate. As PED stock owners are likely to discover in coming months, merely avoiding bankruptcy doesn’t mean the common stock is suddenly a bargain. Due to the terms of the debt restructuring, Pedevco is likely to see its stock diluted to a massive degree. This will put inexorable downward pressure on PED stock going forward.

Ped Stock Was in Critical Condition

Prior to the June 26th debt exchange, Pedevco appeared to be heading for insolvency. PED stock was trading around 30 cents. In its most recent quarter, the company reported just $644,000 in revenues. That was insufficient to even cover the company’s overhead, let alone other costs.

Once you added in the company’s interest costs of more than $3 million per quarter, it was clear that a revenue run rate well under $1 million per quarter wasn’t even close to workable for Pedevco’s finances. The company had just $1.3 million in cash and other current assets, as opposed to $77 million in liabilities. In theory, its oil assets were valued at $34 million, but without any cash with which to develop said assets, Pedevco’s situation was dire.

A Debt Swap Gives Pedevco New Life

On June 26th, Pedevco announced that it had managed to restructure its balance sheet. Its creditors, likely seeing that they were never going to get paid given the status quo, agreed to accept far less compensation for their claims against the company.

As a result, Pedevco was able to satisfy its more than $75 million in existing liabilities and replace them with a new $7.7 million loan from SK Energy at an interest rate of 8%. As Pedevco put it in their press release, this debt exchange adds more than $64 million in new shareholder equity to the company’s balance sheet.

Not surprisingly, traders assumed that much of this value would trickle down to the common PED stock. Pedevco was sporting a book value of -$5.66/share heading into this debt swap. Given that the company had 7.2 million shares of stock outstanding, in theory, this debt exchange added almost $9/share of value to Pedevco’s balance sheet. Add that to book value, and perhaps traders thought that Pedevco was worth more than $3/share now. The market valued PED stock at just 30 cents prior to the debt swap. So, it makes sense that the stock has jumped so far since then, right?

PED Stock Faces Massive Dilution

Unfortunately for PED stock owners, it isn’t so simple. In finance, if you own stock in a nearly insolvent company, creditors are rarely going to give you a massive gift. Remember that the debtholders have priority. If they force a company into bankruptcy, they get the underlying assets. It’s worth considering why the creditors here would give up their ~$75 million in claims against the company for pennies. Given that PED stock would be worth essentially zero in a bankruptcy, the debtholders had no reason to make this sort of swap unless it was good for them too.

So, what are the debtholders getting? Answer: a bunch of PED stock. SK Energy, for one, got 600,000 shares of PED stock merely for giving the company the loan. At today’s $2.50 stock price, that’s $1.5 million in value received on a $7.7 million loan simply for closing the transaction, which amounts to a gigantic implied interest rate. Pedevco is also granting warrants for more than 1.4 million shares of PED stock at 33 cents per share to existing debtholders. That will effectively swell Pedevco’s share count again while diluting the stock at a far lower price than today’s $2.50 quote.

As it is, the company’s share count has already almost doubled. As part of the loan agreement, SK Energy bought the company’s outstanding preferred stock for a nominal sum and converted it into 6,662,500 shares of PED stock, giving it nearly half of the company.

There Is A Bull Case For PED Stock

In theory, Pedevco has a fresh opportunity to succeed. Its new controlling shareholder, SK Energy, is solely owned by Dr. Simon Kukes. Kukes is famous for his involvement in several multi-billion dollar oil and gas enterprises. He headed the Russian oil company Yukos, and led another, Tyumen, until he partnered that firm with British Petroleum (NYSE:BP). He also held top management positions at Amoco and Phillips.

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Needless to say, Kukes is a top-notch industry player. As he put it, Pedevco just needed a better balance sheet to be able to realize the value from its oil and gas properties. Kukes recently said:

“I am excited to make this investment in PEDEVCO whose assets were only hindered in their development by its strangling debt situation. I believe the Company is now well-positioned to develop its assets, grow production, and seek accretive acquisitions.”

That said, Dr. Kukes and Pedevco will still have a challenging road ahead. Given that the company is only generating ~$3 million/year in revenues, it will need to expand quickly — with limited funds — to be able to service its SK Energy debt.

PED Stock Is Dramatically Overvalued

Dr. Kukes has put himself in a great position. He owns a large portion of PED stock, at a price below today’s quote, from this deal. So if the new and improved Pedevco succeeds, his PED stock should rally. And if it doesn’t, he owns the company’s debt, ensuring that his SK Energy still has the claim on Pedevco’s assets.

For other PED stock owners, the situation is significantly less promising. With the newly enlarged 14.5 million share count, the market is valuing Pedevco at $36 million for a company with about $27 million in book value (its oil assets minus the SK Energy debt). This is likely much too high, given that Pedevco will remain unprofitable unless it dramatically increases its revenues.

Additionally, between the warrants and the option to pay SK Energy’s interest payments in PED stock, expect the share count to keep rising in coming quarters. Given ongoing losses, a small asset base, and ongoing new share creation, the forecast for PED stock is rather cloudy. Once the hype wears off, shares are likely to sink back toward $1.

At the time of this writing, the author owned BP stock.

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Is Marijuana the Best Medicine for Epilepsy?

GW Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:GWPH) made a big splash last month when the Food and Drug Administration granted approval to its Epidiolex, a purified formulation of cannabidiol, a chemical compound found naturally in marijuana. The approval sets the stage for more widespread use of marijuana in epilepsy. However, new data from trials evaluating another drug, Zogenix's (NASDAQ:ZGNX) ZX008, calls into question whether marijuana is really the best treatment option.

In this clip from The Motley Fool's Industry Focus: Healthcare, analyst Kristine Harjes and Motley Fool contributor Todd Campbell discuss how Epidiolex and ZX008 could soon wind up competing against each other in this important market.

A full transcript follows the video.

This video was recorded on July 18, 2018.

Kristine Harjes: We'll kick things off this episode with an update on the epilepsy drug market, specifically certain types of childhood onset epilepsy that respond poorly to existing treatment options. Last month, a company called GW Pharmaceuticals, ticker GWPH, won approval for the first-ever marijuana-derived drug, which was approved to treat Dravet Syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome. We touched on this on our April 25th episode after the drug got a thumbs-up from the FDA's advisory committee. Then, the drug went on to be approved. It's called Epidiolex. It's actually not yet available for sale because we're still waiting for it to be scheduled by the Drug Enforcement Administration.

The reason that we bring all of this up again is because there's some new news on the competition front in this space. Before we get to that competition, Todd, do you want to add any details on GW Pharmaceuticals' Epidiolex

Todd Campbell: Investors should know basically what it is. It's a purified version of cannabidiol. We call that CBD. If you ever hear anybody talking about marijuana and they mention CBD, that's what it is. It's one of well over 100 different things that go into making up the marijuana plant. As a matter of fact, it's the second most common thing found in the marijuana plant, accounting for about 40% of its extract -- the most common, obviously, is THC.

CBD is very intriguing to medical researchers because, unlike THC, it does not cause the euphoric high that's associated with smoking marijuana. People are thinking, if CBD is useful medically, we can get away with doing that without exposing patients to the risk of that euphoria.

The other thing that I think is interesting to know, Kristine, we obviously want to update investors on what's going on with GW Pharma, we want to talk about Zogenix, which is the competitor that just had some really interesting news come out. But, I came across this stat as I was doing my research for today's show, and it really surprised me. We don't talk about epilepsy much on this show. Did you know that there are more people with epilepsy than Parkinson's, autism, and multiple sclerosis combined?

Harjes: Wow, that's super interesting. Although, with these drugs, we are talking about very, very specific types of epilepsy that are extremely rare. But, it's interesting how widespread the broader indication is.

Campbell: I think investors have to recognize, because it's such a large patient population, and because, yes, we're talking about Dravet Syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome specifically, there is obviously the potential for this to get used off-label by doctors -- once Epidiolex got approved, and once it becomes available, doctors can write prescriptions for it off-label. There's also the chance for other studies to get done in other, more common forms of epilepsy.

Harjes: That's super interesting. Let's move right along to the competitor, which is another twist and turn in this story that's worth mentioning. The company, as you alluded to, is called Zogenix, ticker ZGNX. They had massive trading days on the market on Thursday and Friday of last week. They gained 32% of their total market cap over those two days alone, based mostly on the successful Phase III data that they reported in their drug ZX008 in Dravet Syndrome.

Campbell: Zogenix is up 415% since last August. That's a mind-numbing return. Of course, the excitement is due to ZX008 and the potential for it to maybe elbow market share away from Epidiolex, if it eventually gets FDA approval. Last fall, they reported positive outcomes from their first Phase III data in Dravet Syndrome, showing that they could reduce monthly seizures in this tough to treat patient population. Then, last week, they had the results come out for their second Phase III trial -- again, significantly reducing monthly seizures in this patient population.

Kristine, you and I talk about it all the time, you can't compare two separate studies head-to-head against one another, it's just bad science to do so. But it's very hard not to do that as an investor, especially when you look at Zogenix's information or data showing a 63% median reduction in monthly seizures for these patients vs. Epidiolex, which, depending on the trial, had a reduction of between 40-50%. Arguably, what you could probably safely say is, both of these drugs are very effective.

Harjes: You're right that it's bad science to compare, but the reason that we always follow that statement with a "but ... " is, people out there in the world, if you're a doctor looking to prescribe one of these two drugs, you're going to see those numbers. Even if you know they haven't been tested head-to-head, if you're looking for something to differentiate them, that's a very easy way to make the decision.

But -- here's another but -- safety is going to end up being an even more important part of this. Something that I want to point out from the Zogenix press release is that ZX008 was stated to be generally well-tolerated in the Phase III study, with adverse events consistent with those observed in earlier studies, and also consistent with the known safety profile of Fenfluramine. That's what ZX008 is a low dose of.

Todd, I want to get your input here on what you make of that, given that this drug, Fenfluramine, was part of the infamous Fen-Phen, an obesity drug that was pulled from the market back in the 1990s due to cardiovascular side effects.

Campbell: Breathing new life into an old, discarded drug. Fen-Phen was heralded for its ability to help battle back obesity. However, when push came to shove, after it got used in the real world, it was discovered that it could increase the risk of cardiovascular problems that could lead to death. So, the FDA asked for it to be removed from the market. I'm sure that many people will be weighing that in the back of their minds, doctors and patients, if ZX008 makes its way past the FDA to the market and they're trying to compare these competing drugs.

So far, in hundreds of patients studied by Zogenix, we have not seen any scary cardiovascular signals. It may be that they found the sweet spot, the right amount of dosing that wouldn't cause the cardiovascular problems, but still has efficacy.

The thing that investors ought to realize, too, though, is, you might think, "OK, this is a slam dunk, ZX008. It's Fen, who's going to want to prescribe that?" But, it wasn't like Epidiolex came through with a squeaky-clean safety profile, either. As a matter of fact, patients who get prescribed that drug will have to undergo constant monitoring to make sure they don't end up with elevated liver enzymes, because that was a problem that was observed in its trials.

There's a little bit of a debate here between, we have these two very efficacious products for a patient population that's in desperate need. Remember, Kristine, these people are suffering dozens of seizures per month. Frankly, they don't respond to the current antiepileptics on the market. The difference in 10% of efficacy when you're having dozens, that's a significant efficacy difference, theoretically. Kristine, I think it'll just come down to perceptions -- how do people perceive marijuana vs. how they perceive Fen-Phen.

Harjes: Yeah, absolutely. Price could be another component, but at this stage, it's too early to tell.

NaPoleonX Market Capitalization Hits $6.11 Million (NPX)

NaPoleonX (CURRENCY:NPX) traded up 4.7% against the US dollar during the twenty-four hour period ending at 15:00 PM E.T. on July 7th. One NaPoleonX token can currently be purchased for approximately $0.24 or 0.00003684 BTC on major cryptocurrency exchanges. In the last seven days, NaPoleonX has traded up 5.4% against the US dollar. NaPoleonX has a total market capitalization of $6.11 million and $595,626.00 worth of NaPoleonX was traded on exchanges in the last day.

Here’s how other cryptocurrencies have performed in the last day:

Get NaPoleonX alerts: XRP (XRP) traded down 1% against the dollar and now trades at $0.47 or 0.00007182 BTC. Stellar (XLM) traded down 1.7% against the dollar and now trades at $0.20 or 0.00003099 BTC. IOTA (MIOTA) traded 0.9% lower against the dollar and now trades at $1.05 or 0.00016030 BTC. Tether (USDT) traded 0% lower against the dollar and now trades at $1.00 or 0.00015343 BTC. NEO (NEO) traded down 1.2% against the dollar and now trades at $37.11 or 0.00566606 BTC. TRON (TRX) traded down 1.3% against the dollar and now trades at $0.0363 or 0.00000554 BTC. Binance Coin (BNB) traded up 4.2% against the dollar and now trades at $14.05 or 0.00214553 BTC. VeChain (VET) traded 2.4% lower against the dollar and now trades at $2.45 or 0.00037340 BTC. Ontology (ONT) traded down 4.5% against the dollar and now trades at $4.51 or 0.00068828 BTC. Zilliqa (ZIL) traded 5.8% lower against the dollar and now trades at $0.0800 or 0.00001221 BTC.

NaPoleonX Token Profile

NaPoleonX’s launch date was September 29th, 2017. NaPoleonX’s total supply is 29,800,000 tokens and its circulating supply is 25,330,000 tokens. NaPoleonX’s official website is napoleonx.ai. The official message board for NaPoleonX is medium.com/@napoleonx.ai. NaPoleonX’s official Twitter account is @NapoleonXai. The Reddit community for NaPoleonX is /r/NapoleonX.

Buying and Selling NaPoleonX

NaPoleonX can be traded on the following cryptocurrency exchanges: . It is usually not currently possible to buy alternative cryptocurrencies such as NaPoleonX directly using U.S. dollars. Investors seeking to trade NaPoleonX should first buy Bitcoin or Ethereum using an exchange that deals in U.S. dollars such as Gemini, Changelly or GDAX. Investors can then use their newly-acquired Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy NaPoleonX using one of the exchanges listed above.

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How to Find the One Rare Stock Move That Could Put You in Profits for the Entire Month

D.R. Barton, Jr.

There are just over 3,800 stocks trading on U.S. markets on any given trading day, from the coveted Berkshire Hathaway "A" shares trading at $283,000 each, to the dozens of (really) small no-name companies you can buy for less than $0.01.

And yet, only a fraction of these 3,800 stocks are "in play." Fewer still are in any kind of position to make you money.

So today, I'm going to show you exactly how to spot the small handful of stocks that can – and often do – make you rapid, outsized profits.

These are shares undergoing rare "extreme" situations that are really easy to spot if you know what you're looking for (and even easier to make double- and triple-digit gains on).

You don't have to pick from a list of stocks, either; just one can make you incredible gains, in anywhere from a few hours to a few trading days.

For instance, earlier in 2018, during volatile January, my 10-Minute Millionaire Pro subscribers had a chance to close out two 100% gainers and another 108% winner. The longest we were in any of those positions was just eight trading days! �

That's right: Some weeks, I make all the money I need for a month or a year before lunch. Everything else is just cream.

Put in a little work – just 10 minutes a day – to get enough of these going for you, and before you know it, making money happens with a precision and regularity that's almost machine-like!

As I'll show you in a second, these extremes I'm talking about happen courtesy of the millions of people buying and selling stocks every day. They're rare, but there's almost always at least one of these incredibly lucrative opportunities somewhere every single day the markets are open.

Here's how you can bag them…

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

D.R. Barton, Jr.

About the Author

Browse D.R.'s articles | View D.R.'s research services

Nationally recognized technical trader. Background in �engineering, system designs, and risk reduction. 26 years in the markets.

… Read full bio

Hot Energy Stocks For 2019

tags:CLF,CLB,CVI,ESES,

Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) is a constituent of the 20 company Integrated Oil GICS industry group, which is a segment of the 186 company GICS Energy Minerals sector. The market value of XOM is $370.8 billion which falls in the top decile in its industry group. The current Portfolio Grader ranking for XOM puts it 14 among the 20 companies in this industry group, which is a below-average position; in the third quartile of the sector with a ranking of 94 among the 186 companies in the sector, and number 2,700 in the nearly 5,000 company Portfolio Grader universe.

Portfolio Grader currently ranks XOM as a Hold. The approach to fundamental and quantitative metrics used in this stock evaluation tool developed by Louis Navellier, researches and ranks approximately 5,000 stocks each week. The shares have been upgraded from a Sell to a Hold in the last week.

Currently, Portfolio Grader ranks the Energy Minerals sector number 17 among the 20 sectors in its universe putting it in the bottom quartile of all the GICS sectors. The Integrated Oil industry group is ranked 34 among the 129 industry groups within the GICS sectors, placing it near the average in terms of the Navellier scoring system.

Hot Energy Stocks For 2019: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.(CLF)

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Tyler Crowe]

  At first glance, Cleveland-Cliffs' (NYSE:CLF) most recent earnings report might make shareholders want to push the sell button as fast as they can open their brokerage accounts. But before you� precipitously sour on this iron miner, take a deeper look at its results. Even though its revenue and earnings were down drastically, those declines were largely a product of its moves to shut down unprofitable assets.�

• [By Tyler Crowe, Reuben Gregg Brewer, and Travis Hoium]

  For people looking to build wealth, penny stocks simply aren't worth it. You're better off pursuing well-run businesses and letting the power of their earnings grow your position over the long haul. So we asked three of our Motley Fool investors to choose stocks they like right now that would be good alternatives. Here's why they picked Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV).��

• [By Stephan Byrd]

  Hudbay Minerals (NYSE: HBM) and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) are both basic materials companies, but which is the superior stock? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their earnings, profitability, analyst recommendations, valuation, dividends, risk and institutional ownership.

• [By Brian Feroldi, Keith Speights, and Neha Chamaria]

  With that in mind, we asked a team of Motley Fool investors to highlight a stock that was recently purchased by a well-known investor.�Here's why they called out�Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and�SiteOne Landscape Supply (NYSE:SITE).�

• [By Money Morning News Team]

  Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) is a mining company that specializes in the mining and refinement of iron ore.

  In the United States, the company operates five iron ore mines in Michigan and Minnesota. Located near the Great Lakes, these mines produce 32.9 million gross tons of iron ore annually.

Hot Energy Stocks For 2019: Core Laboratories N.V.(CLB)

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Matthew DiLallo]

  Shares of Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB) are falling today, down around 10% as of 10:45 a.m. EDT, after the oil-field services specialist revised its guidance for the second quarter and the stock received an analyst downgrade.

• [By Maxx Chatsko]

  Many of the problems facing EGS today are the same ones shale energy dealt with years ago: drilling wells, stimulating wells (keeping the fractures opened and the fluid flowing), characterizing underground reservoirs to optimize drilling and extraction techniques, and so on. That makes one oil and gas stock uniquely positioned to cash in on the opportunity of EGS: Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB).

• [By Ethan Ryder]

  Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Core Laboratories (CLB)

  For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

Hot Energy Stocks For 2019: CVR Energy Inc.(CVI)

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Stephan Byrd]

  CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVI) reached a new 52-week high and low during trading on Wednesday . The stock traded as low as $41.88 and last traded at $41.81, with a volume of 8024 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at $41.64.

• [By Maxx Chatsko]

  Shares of�CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) dropped over 12% today after the holding company announced an interesting stock exchange offer for unitholders of its subsidiary,�CVR Refining (NYSE:CVRR). The transaction will allow for up to 37.1 million units of the refiner to be exchanged for up to 23.5 million shares of the parent company, or at a 0.6335-to-1 ratio.�

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  The stock market performed badly on Tuesday, with major benchmarks finishing down anywhere from 0.5% to 1.6%. Adding to the list of concerns among market participants, signs of economic challenges in Italy brought back memories of past troubles in Europe that extended the length of time that the continent suffered from disruptions following the U.S. financial crisis in the late 2000s. Investors also had to deal with plunging oil prices that led to a flood of buying in the bond market, sending interest rates plunging lower. Bad news also affected several individual companies. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Infinera (NASDAQ:INFN), and CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) were among the worst performers on the day. Here's why they did so poorly.

• [By Shane Hupp]

  Natixis Advisors L.P. bought a new stake in CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund bought 24,807 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock, valued at approximately $750,000.

• [By Stephan Byrd]

  CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVI) shares hit a new 52-week high and low during mid-day trading on Monday . The stock traded as low as $39.74 and last traded at $39.69, with a volume of 566335 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $36.81.

Hot Energy Stocks For 2019: Eco-Stim Energy Solutions, Inc.(ESES)

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Ethan Ryder]

  Press coverage about Eco-Stim Energy Solutions (NASDAQ:ESES) has trended somewhat positive recently, Accern Sentiment Analysis reports. The research firm scores the sentiment of press coverage by reviewing more than 20 million blog and news sources in real time. Accern ranks coverage of public companies on a scale of -1 to 1, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. Eco-Stim Energy Solutions earned a daily sentiment score of 0.12 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned media coverage about the oil and gas company an impact score of 47.1001025646776 out of 100, indicating that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the company’s share price in the near term.

• [By Joseph Griffin]

  Hurricane Energy (OTCMKTS: HRCXF) and Eco-Stim Energy Solutions (NASDAQ:ESES) are both small-cap oils/energy companies, but which is the better business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their profitability, earnings, risk, dividends, analyst recommendations, institutional ownership and valuation.

Reviewing KEYW (KEYW) & Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX)

KEYW (NASDAQ: KEYW) and Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ:MDRX) are both computer and technology companies, but which is the better stock? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their profitability, dividends, institutional ownership, risk, valuation, earnings and analyst recommendations.

Earnings and Valuation

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This table compares KEYW and Allscripts Healthcare Solutions’ top-line revenue, earnings per share and valuation.

	Gross Revenue	Price/Sales Ratio	Net Income	Earnings Per Share	Price/Earnings Ratio
KEYW	$441.59 million	1.05	-$10.95 million	($0.45)	-20.64
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions	$1.81 billion	1.19	-$152.60 million	$0.47	25.62

KEYW has higher earnings, but lower revenue than Allscripts Healthcare Solutions. KEYW is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.

Profitability

This table compares KEYW and Allscripts Healthcare Solutions’ net margins, return on equity and return on assets.

	Net Margins	Return on Equity	Return on Assets
KEYW	-1.58%	-0.93%	-0.41%
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions	-11.34%	7.80%	2.20%

Analyst Recommendations

This is a summary of recent ratings and target prices for KEYW and Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, as provided by MarketBeat.

	Sell Ratings	Hold Ratings	Buy Ratings	Strong Buy Ratings	Rating Score
KEYW	0	2	5	0	2.71
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions	1	2	13	0	2.75

KEYW presently has a consensus target price of $9.75, suggesting a potential upside of 4.95%. Allscripts Healthcare Solutions has a consensus target price of $16.34, suggesting a potential upside of 35.73%. Given Allscripts Healthcare Solutions’ stronger consensus rating and higher possible upside, analysts plainly believe Allscripts Healthcare Solutions is more favorable than KEYW.

Risk and Volatility

KEYW has a beta of 0.67, suggesting that its share price is 33% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions has a beta of 1.25, suggesting that its share price is 25% more volatile than the S&P 500.

Summary

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions beats KEYW on 10 of the 12 factors compared between the two stocks.

About KEYW

The KeyW Holding Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides engineering and technology solutions to support the collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination of information across the spectrum of the intelligence, cyber, and counterterrorism communities in the United States. The company's solutions are designed to meet the critical needs of agile intelligence and U.S. Government national security priorities comprising cyber operations and training; geospatial intelligence; cloud and data analytics; engineering; and intelligence analysis and operations. Its products include electro-optical, hyperspectral, and synthetic aperture radar sensors and other products. The company provides its products and services to the U.S. federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies; foreign governments; and other entities in the cyber and counterterrorism markets. The KeyW Holding Corporation was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Hanover, Maryland.

About Allscripts Healthcare Solutions

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. provides information technology solutions and services to healthcare organizations in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers electronic health records, connectivity, private cloud hosting, outsourcing, analytics, patient engagement, clinical decision support, and population health management solutions. The company's Clinical and Financial Solutions segment provides integrated clinical software applications and financial and information solutions, which primarily include EHR-related, and financial and practice management software solutions, as well as related installation, support and maintenance, outsourcing, private cloud hosting, revenue cycle management, training, and electronic claims administration services. Its Population Health segment offers health management and coordinated care solutions that enable hospitals, health systems, accountable care organizations, and other care facilities to connect, transition, analyze, and coordinate care across the entire care community. The company's Netsmart segment operates in and provides software and technology solutions to the health and human services, and post-acute sectors of health care. The company serves physicians, hospitals, governments, health systems, health plans, life-sciences companies, retail clinics, retail pharmacies, pharmacy benefit managers, insurance companies, and employer wellness clinics, as well as post-acute organizations, such as home health and hospice agencies. Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Albemarle Co. (ALB) Stake Boosted by Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc.

Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. grew its position in Albemarle Co. (NYSE:ALB) by 47.7% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 27,401 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock after purchasing an additional 8,844 shares during the quarter. Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc.’s holdings in Albemarle were worth $2,539,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Several other large investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in ALB. First Trust Advisors LP raised its position in shares of Albemarle by 212.7% in the fourth quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 118,684 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock valued at $15,178,000 after purchasing an additional 80,730 shares during the period. State of Wisconsin Investment Board raised its position in shares of Albemarle by 0.9% in the fourth quarter. State of Wisconsin Investment Board now owns 98,000 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock valued at $12,533,000 after purchasing an additional 871 shares during the period. Raymond James Financial Services Advisors Inc. raised its position in shares of Albemarle by 10.2% in the fourth quarter. Raymond James Financial Services Advisors Inc. now owns 26,991 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock valued at $3,452,000 after purchasing an additional 2,496 shares during the period. BlackRock Inc. raised its position in shares of Albemarle by 0.9% in the fourth quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 8,061,848 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock valued at $1,031,029,000 after purchasing an additional 69,181 shares during the period. Finally, UBS Asset Management Americas Inc. raised its position in shares of Albemarle by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. UBS Asset Management Americas Inc. now owns 321,542 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock valued at $41,122,000 after purchasing an additional 1,460 shares during the period. 86.15% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

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ALB opened at $93.46 on Friday. Albemarle Co. has a fifty-two week low of $86.75 and a fifty-two week high of $144.99. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, a quick ratio of 1.72 and a current ratio of 2.48. The firm has a market cap of $10.19 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.36, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.08 and a beta of 1.63.

Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, May 9th. The specialty chemicals company reported $1.30 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $1.20 by $0.10. Albemarle had a net margin of 4.27% and a return on equity of 13.80%. The firm had revenue of $821.60 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $798.20 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company earned $1.05 earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 13.8% compared to the same quarter last year. sell-side analysts anticipate that Albemarle Co. will post 5.25 EPS for the current fiscal year.

The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Monday, July 2nd. Shareholders of record on Friday, June 15th will be paid a dividend of $0.335 per share. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, June 14th. This represents a $1.34 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.43%. Albemarle’s dividend payout ratio is currently 29.19%.

A number of equities analysts have recently commented on ALB shares. TheStreet raised shares of Albemarle from a “c+” rating to a “b” rating in a research report on Wednesday, May 9th. Seaport Global Securities restated a “buy” rating on shares of Albemarle in a research note on Tuesday, March 6th. Royal Bank of Canada lowered their price objective on shares of Albemarle from $133.00 to $100.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, March 2nd. Loop Capital set a $130.00 price objective on shares of Albemarle and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday, March 2nd. Finally, Argus began coverage on shares of Albemarle in a research note on Friday, February 23rd. They issued a “buy” rating and a $148.00 price objective on the stock. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have issued a hold rating and twenty-one have assigned a buy rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $124.16.

Albemarle Profile

Albemarle Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets engineered specialty chemicals worldwide. Its Lithium and Advanced Materials segment offers lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and lithium specialties, as well as reagents, such as butyllithium and lithium aluminum hydride for applications in lithium batteries for consumer electronics and automobiles, high performance greases, thermoplastic elastomers for car tires, rubber soles, plastic bottles, catalysts for chemical reactions, organic synthesis processes, life science, pharmaceutical, and other markets.

Analysts Anticipate NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) to Post $0.62 Earnings Per Share

Equities analysts expect NBT Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:NBTB) to announce earnings per share (EPS) of $0.62 for the current quarter, according to Zacks Investment Research. Two analysts have made estimates for NBT Bancorp’s earnings. NBT Bancorp posted earnings per share of $0.49 in the same quarter last year, which indicates a positive year over year growth rate of 26.5%. The firm is expected to issue its next earnings results on Monday, July 23rd.

According to Zacks, analysts expect that NBT Bancorp will report full year earnings of $2.47 per share for the current financial year, with EPS estimates ranging from $2.45 to $2.48. For the next fiscal year, analysts forecast that the company will post earnings of $2.62 per share, with EPS estimates ranging from $2.61 to $2.62. Zacks Investment Research’s EPS averages are a mean average based on a survey of sell-side research analysts that that provide coverage for NBT Bancorp.

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NBT Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBTB) last issued its earnings results on Monday, April 23rd. The bank reported $0.59 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.58 by $0.01. The company had revenue of $104.76 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $104.14 million. NBT Bancorp had a net margin of 19.99% and a return on equity of 9.69%. The business’s revenue was up 7.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned $0.46 EPS.

A number of analysts recently commented on NBTB shares. Zacks Investment Research lowered NBT Bancorp from a “buy” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 21st. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reaffirmed a “hold” rating and issued a $41.50 target price on shares of NBT Bancorp in a research report on Tuesday, February 27th. BidaskClub lowered NBT Bancorp from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Friday, March 2nd. Finally, Boenning Scattergood reaffirmed a “hold” rating on shares of NBT Bancorp in a research report on Wednesday, April 25th. Six research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and one has issued a buy rating to the stock. The stock presently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $39.13.

Shares of NBT Bancorp opened at $39.30 on Friday, according to MarketBeat.com. NBT Bancorp has a one year low of $31.28 and a one year high of $40.47. The firm has a market cap of $1.70 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.95 and a beta of 0.86. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, a quick ratio of 0.84 and a current ratio of 0.84.

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Friday, June 15th. Investors of record on Friday, June 1st were given a $0.25 dividend. This represents a $1.00 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.54%. This is a positive change from NBT Bancorp’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. The ex-dividend date was Thursday, May 31st. NBT Bancorp’s payout ratio is presently 50.76%.

A number of hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in NBTB. Schwab Charles Investment Management Inc. boosted its stake in NBT Bancorp by 7.1% during the 4th quarter. Schwab Charles Investment Management Inc. now owns 291,528 shares of the bank’s stock valued at $10,729,000 after purchasing an additional 19,384 shares during the last quarter. CIBC Asset Management Inc acquired a new position in NBT Bancorp during the 4th quarter valued at about $208,000. Teacher Retirement System of Texas acquired a new position in NBT Bancorp during the 4th quarter valued at about $553,000. California Public Employees Retirement System boosted its stake in NBT Bancorp by 8.1% during the 4th quarter. California Public Employees Retirement System now owns 98,544 shares of the bank’s stock valued at $3,626,000 after purchasing an additional 7,364 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Swiss National Bank boosted its stake in NBT Bancorp by 3.5% during the 4th quarter. Swiss National Bank now owns 73,300 shares of the bank’s stock valued at $2,697,000 after purchasing an additional 2,500 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 51.19% of the company’s stock.

About NBT Bancorp

NBT Bancorp Inc, a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial, commercial real estate, agricultural, agricultural real estate, and business banking loans; consumer loans, such as indirect, home equity, and direct loans; and residential real estate mortgages, as well as real estate construction and development loans.

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How to make sure your Amazon Echo doesn't send secret recordings

It was Alexa's equivalent of a pocket dial.

A woman in Portland, Oregon claimed her Amazon Echo smart-speaker secretly recorded a private conversation, then sent the audio file to an acquaintance. She told her story to a local news outlet and it spread, stoking fears about always listening devices invading privacy.

Amazon confirmed the incident and claimed it was caused by an extremely rare series of events. The Echo misheard four different commands causing it to turn on, record a voice message, and send it to a contact.

While that family says they will no longer use Echo devices, there are some less extreme measures that smart speaker fans can take to protect their privacy.

Turn off calling and messaging features

It sounds like a simple solution: turn off any features that can accidentally record and share audio. Unfortunately, there is no option to turn off voice messaging in the current Alexa app. You have to talk to Amazon customer service on the phone to turn of messaging.

You can call Amazon at (888) 280-4331, or open the Alexa app and go to Help & Feedback and have Amazon customer service call you.

Amazon tells us this is the recommended way to turn of messaging features or delete contacts, but it is working on a way to control these settings inside the app.

Don't give Alexa your contact list

When you first set up an Alexa device on a smartphone, you give the app permission to access the contacts saved on your phone. If you are a new Echo user, you can skip this step and deny it permission. However, once you do give it permission, it uploads your contacts to its servers. Even if you revoke access in the phone's settings, or delete the app completely, Alexa will continue to have all the phone numbers and email addresses it already saved from you address book. The only way to remove them is by calling customer service. You can, however, mute individual contacts in the app.

Pump up the volume or hit the mute button

If the volume on an Echo or similar device is turned all the way down, you may not hear it asking for prompts like the name of a contact. Especially if its excellent microphones pick up your voice in a different room.

Echo speakers have seven microphones that are always listening for Alexa's "wake" word. The devices only record and upload audio once they hear that word, but as this case illustrates, sometimes it can be triggered by mistake.

When you want to be extra sure a smart speaker isn't listening, mute it. The Echo and Google Home have physical mute buttons, and Apple's HomePod has a mute voice command ("Hey Siri, stop listening"). The light ring on the top of an Echo turns red when it is muted.

Avoid saying words that sound like "Alexa"

The recent secret recoding incident began when an Echo misheard something that sounded like "Alexa," its trigger word. According to the Rhyming Dictionary there aren't many exact rhymes for Alexa, but you should avoid dropping adnexa, annexa, celexa, lenexa, or reflexa into casual conversations.

If someone in your house is actually named Alexa or something similar, you can change the Echo's trigger word to Echo, Amazon or Computer.

Live like everyone's watching

While people are wringing their hands over the Echo, it's not the only potential privacy risk in your home. There are other smart speakers using always-on microphones, like Google Home and Microsoft's Cortana devices.

Smartphones can also be set to an always listening mode, including iPhones and Google's Pixel devices. Devices without microphones can collect private data too. Connected cameras like Ring doorbells and Nest Cams, sensors that track movement, and even something like a "smart" fridge can all collect information about you that you'd rather keep secret.

You can unplug them all until you are confident in the tech industries privacy protections, or you can go about your daily life avoiding doing or saying anything embarrassing (or illegal).

Should Value Investors Take A Road Trip With RV Makers?

Dreaming of the open road and getting away from it all? How about piling your family into an RV and heading into the sunset? Or how about a nice quiet retirement hopping from one natural wonder to the next? Sounds amazing and I have dreamed of doing just this when I retire and I know I am not the only one. This got me thinking about the Recreational Vehicle (RV) market and what value investment opportunities there might be in RV manufacturing companies.

Idealistic dreams of the open road aside, there are considerations that are needed to ensure that an investment in the RV business makes sense to the value investor. I will be reviewing two of the largest RV manufacturers, Thor Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) and Winnebago Industries, Inc. (NYSE:WGO) to identify if these companies are solid value investments.

Investment Thesis

My goal of these articles is to identify quality companies at a fair price and purchase them with a margin of safety to ensure growth of my investment. I will be looking for the following in my analysis:

Do I know or have the ability to understand what the business does? What about the company keeps competitors at bay and ensure longevity? Does the company have quality management who are open, honest, and working in the best interest of the stakeholders? What is the value of the company and can I can buy the company at a price that gives a level of comfort? Criteria 1 �� Understanding the Business

Winnebago and Thor are both leading U.S. manufacturers of recreational vehicles (RV), including motorized and towable options. Thor started in 1980 and is ranked number one by market share with 48% of the market and $7.25 billion in revenues in 2017 and includes subsidiaries including Airstream, Thor Motor Coach, Jayco, Heartland, and Starcraft, amongst others. Winnebago has been in business since 1957 and is ranked 3rd in market share with 6% of the market and revenues of $1.55 billion in revenue and sells under the Winnebago and Grand Design names. Berkshire Hathaway��s (BRK-A, BRK-B) Forest River, Inc. is ranked 2nd in market share.

The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) states that over 9 million people own RVs and there were just shy of 505,000 RVs sold in 2017, which represents a 17% increase over 2016. Demographic changes including more of the population reaching retirement age as well as younger buyers interested in outdoor lifestyles have forecasters expecting the RV industry to grow well into the future.

Source: RVIA.org

The RV industry is considered a cyclical business, with sales fluctuating based on the economy. The growth of the U.S. economy and a reduction in unemployment rates since the Great Recession has helped bolster the RV industry. Forecast growth of the economy in the next few years is expected to remain strong and similar to the past years since the Great Recession of 2008-09. Forecasts show that GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the next three years will maintain a similar pattern as prior years as shown in the table below.

Year	GDP	Unemployment	Inflation
2010	2.5%	9.3%	1.5%
2011	1.6%	8.5%	3.0%
2012	2.2%	7.8%	1.7%
2013	1.7%	6.7%	1.5%
2014	2.6%	5.6%	0.8%
2015	2.9%	5.0%	0.7%
2016	1.5%	4.7%	2.1%
2017	2.3%	4.1%	2.1%
2018 Forecast	2.7%	3.8%	1.9%
2019 Forecast	2.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2020 Forecast	2.0%	3.6%	2.1%

Source: thebalance.com

Historically, the RV industry follows the economic cycle, but a recent trend in younger buyers purchasing their first RV and the aging of the population, which has traditionally been the buyers of RVs, shows that there might be additional demand over the next few years and beyond, even if the economy cools down.

Criteria 2 - Competitive Advantage

For Thor, the size and breath of their subsidiaries is their main competitive advantage, with size and price range of purchase options to accommodate buyers on the entire price spectrum. The company has been actively acquiring additional brands including Jayco in 2016 and Livin Lite RV in 2013.

Winnebago��s competitive advantage is the brand name itself. Winnebago is an American classic brand. When you think of RV, Winnebago comes to mind. Having been in business for over 60 years, the Winnebago name is known to a large number of potential buyers. A recent innovation for Winnebago is the first zero emissions all-electric RV option.

Criteria 3 �� Management

Management effectiveness can be measured using the Return on Equity (ROE) and Return of Invested Capital (NASDAQ:ROIC) listed in the tables below. Both companies have successfully increased both ratios over the years which shows that management has been good stewards of the investor's funds and are using the funds effectively to grow the company. Additionally, both companies are growing without extensive long term debt. Thor has approximately $80 million outstanding and the company intends to reduce that to zero this summer. Winnebago is showing $272 million in long term debt.

Thor Industries, Inc

Thor Industries	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	5-Year Avg.
Return on Equity (ROE)	16.16	14.23	14.43	17.54	19.14	19.52	22.01	26.34	21.45
Return on Invested Capital (NASDAQ:ROIC)	15.68	13.89	14.18	17.33	19.03	19.44	16.86	22.72	19.92

Winnebago Industries, Inc

Winnebago Industries	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	5-Year Avg.
Return on Equity (ROE)	10.79	11.48	35.49	20.26	24.79	19.92	18.6	20.09	21.45
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	11.85	11.48	36.34	20.97	25.52	19.92	18.6	13.09	19.38

Thor Industries CEO has been with the company since 2001 and has been in the RV industry even longer in various positions. Additional senior management has also been with the company for 7 or more years.

Winnebago Industries Grand Design Brand's CEO has been in the industry for 30 years and the Chairman of the Board has been with Winnebago since 2008.

Criteria 4 �� Value Calculation

As mentioned in my previous article, I will be using a margin of safety valuation model based on Discounted Cash Flow (NYSE:DCF). Below are the calculations used to determine both the Fair Value (Intrinsic Value) Today and the Margin of Safety price depending on the investors discounted price requirements.

Thor Industries, Inc.

Future 10-Year Price Calculation:

This calculation uses the current EPS, expected EPS growth rate, and P/E Ratio to determine what the intrinsic value of the company will be in 10 years.

Thor Industries	Figures	Process
2017 EPS	7.09	Source: morningstar.com
Expected EPS Growth Rate	11.90%	Source: nasdaq.com
Future 10-year EPS	16.75	Calculate what the EPS will be in 10 years using the current EPS grown for 10 years at the compounded Expected EPS Growth Rate
Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio	18.77	The P/E Ratio used to calculate the Future 10-year price is the lower of 2x the Expected EPS Growth Rate or highest yearly P/E over the past 10 years. Note: In this case, the 2x EPS growth rate is higher than the highest historical P/E (18.77) over the past 10 years, so I used the highest historical P/E. Source: morningstar.com
Future 10-year Price	$409.65	Future 10-Year EPS x P/E

Fair Price Today:

This calculation will use the Future 10-Year Price and discount that amount to today's price based on the investor's Required Rate of Return. Each investor has a certain minimum expected rate of return for taking the risk with a certain company. These prices would be considered the current intrinsic value of the company. As a value investor we would want to consider buying at this price or lower.

Thor Industries, Inc.
Required Rate of Return (NYSE:RRR)	Fair Price Today	Calculation
15% minimum required rate of return	$101.26	Future 10-Year Price / (1.15) compounded for 10 years
12% minimum required rate of return	$131.90	Future 10-Year Price / (1.12) compounded for 10 years
10% minimum required rate of return	$157.94	Future 10-Year Price / (1.10) compounded for 10 years

Margin of Safety Calculation:

In order to ensure a margin of safety, a value investor should look for a purchase price below today's fair price (intrinsic value). Some value investors call this the "on-sale" price. To find the price a value investor should look to buy this company is to identify their required rate of return and then identify the margin of safety they would need.

Example: For Investor A to invest in a company he/she requires a 12% return and wants to purchase a company at a margin of safety of 33%, then the price he/she should pay would be $88.37.

Margin of Safety	15% RRR	12% RRR	10% RRR
50% discount	$50.63	$65.95	$78.97
33% discount	$67.84	$88.37	$105.82
25% discount	$75.94	$98.92	$118.45

Winnebago Industries, Inc.

Future 10-Year Price Calculation:

This calculation uses the current EPS, expected EPS growth rate, and P/E Ratio to determine what the intrinsic value of the company will be in 10 years.

Winnebago Industries, Inc.	Figures	Process
Current EPS	2.67	Source: morningstar.com
Expected EPS Growth Rate	9.68%	Source: www.nasdaq.com
Future 10-year EPS	$6.72	Calculate what the EPS will be in 10 years using the current EPS grown for 10 years at the compounded Expected EPS Growth Rate.
Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio	19.36	The P/E Ratio used to calculate the Future 10-year price is the lower of 2x the Expected EPS Growth Rate or highest yearly P/E over the past 10 years. Note: In this case, the 2x EPS growth rate (19.36) is lower than the highest historical P/E over the past 10 years. so I used the 2x EPS growth rate. Source: morningstar.com
Future 10-year Price	$130.22	Future 10-Year EPS x P/E

Fair Price Today:

This calculation will use the Future 10-Year Price and discount that amount to today's price based on the investor's Required Rate of Return. Each investor has a certain minimum expected rate of return for taking the risk with a certain company. These prices would be considered the current intrinsic value of the company. As a value investor we would want to consider buying at this price or lower.

Winnebago Industries, Inc.
Required Rate of Return (RRR)	Fair Price Today	Calculation
15% minimum required rate of return	$32.19	Future 10-Year Price / (1.15) compounded for 10 years
12% minimum required rate of return	$41.93	Future 10-Year Price / (1.12) compounded for 10 years
10% minimum required rate of return	$50.21	Future 10-Year Price / (1.10) compounded for 10 years

Margin of Safety Calculation:

In order to ensure a margin of safety, a value investor should look for a purchase price below today's fair price (intrinsic value). Some value investors call this the "on-sale" price. To find the price a value investor should look to buy this company is to identify their required rate of return and then identify the margin of safety they would need.

Example: For Investor B to invest in a company he/she requires a 10% return and wants to purchase a company at a margin of safety of 50%, then the price he/she should pay would be $25.10.

Margin of Safety	15% RRR	12% RRR	10% RRR
50% discount	$16.09	$20.96	$25.10
33% discount	$21.57	$28.09	$33.64
25% discount	$24.14	$31.45	$37.66

Final Determination

As of the writing of this article, Thor Industries (THO) has a price of $97.40, and Winnebago Industries (WGO) is priced at $37.00.

Both companies are valued fairly today based on their intrinsic values, with Thor slightly better priced than Winnebago. While these are fair prices, value investors should look for an additional margin of safety before purchasing. Looking at the Margin of Safety Calculations above, both companies are at or approaching a buy range depending on the level of discount desired and required rate of return.

Each investor has to determine their level of margin of safety and requirements in regards to required rates of returns, but both Thor and Winnebago should be on value investor's radar. They will both be placed on my Wishlist.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.